OPEC lowers forecasts for oil production outside organization in 2021-2022

OPEC oil production in September increased by 486,000 barrels per day, amounting to 27.33 million barrels per day, Report informs referring to the October OPEC report.

The total oil production of 13 OPEC countries averaged 27.33 million barrels per day in September 2021, which is 0.49 million barrels per day more compared to the previous month. Production increased mainly in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to the report.

In September, oil production increased by 84,000 barrels per day compared to August in Iraq, by 139,000 in Saudi Arabia, 156.000 in Nigeria, 26,000 in Kuwait. A number of other countries also increased output. Output cuts amounted to 5,000 barrels per day in Libya, 6,000 in Congo and 1,000 barrels per day in Equatorial Guinea.

OPEC+ has cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day since May last year due to a drop in oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. As the situation stabilized, the deal was adjusted. Since August 2021, the alliance has been increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day every month, hoping to gradually withdraw from its commitments to reduce oil output by the end of September 2022.

Only 10 out of 13 countries participate in the deal from OPEC – Iran, Venezuela and Libya are excluded from it. The baseline for all is October 2018, and for Russia and Saudi Arabia – 11 million barrels per day. However, from May 2022, it was agreed to increase the base for reducing oil production for the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait. For Russia and Saudi Arabia, it will rise to 11.5 million barrels per day.

The organization also lowered its out-of-organization oil production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 210,000 and 130,000 barrels per day, respectively, to 63.64 million barrels per day this year and to 66.66 million barrels per day next year, according to the report of the organization.

The forecast for the growth of non-OPEC liquid hydrocarbon production in 2021 was revised downward by 0.3 million barrels per day compared to the forecast of the previous month, to 0.7 million barrels per day year-on-year, the report said.

This decline is mainly due to a 0.6 million barrels per day month-on-month drop in liquid hydrocarbon production in August, mainly in the OECD countries of the Americas due to disruptions in oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in the US, force majeure on the Canadian Suncor oil sands and an offshore platform in Mexico, the organization said.

At the same time, OPEC slightly increased its estimate of oil and condensate production in countries outside the organization in 2020 – to 62.98 million barrels per day (the previous estimate was 62.93 million barrels per day).

The forecast for production growth in non-OPEC countries for 2022 has been raised by 0.1 million barrels per day and now stands at 3 million barrels per day in annual terms, the report added.

As the main growth drivers in 2022, the authors list Russia (per 1 million barrels per day), the US (0.8 million barrels per day), as well as Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan, Guyana and other non-OPEC countries. However, the uncertainty about some of the financial and operational aspects of US production remains high, they conclude.