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The crisis in Ukraine is turning into a crisis in Russia

Author: Shahin Jafarli

Russia first gathered an army on the borders of Ukraine, then the United States and NATO snowput demands on the glass. In other words, he supported his diplomacy with a show of force. This demonstration is primarily to Western decision-makers and was aimed at public opinion that, let the result be obtained. It is the intention to attack Ukraine and It is not convincing that this military gathering was carried out for the purpose.

Russia The unity of the Western bloc has long been broken and that continental Europe is moving away from America, that there has been a leadership crisis in the West for many years, the United States political more internal calculations of the head of the parties, which are the 2 main pillars of the system snoweven the Democratic president is critical of the Democrat-dominated Congress the law observed that he was too weak to carry out his initiatives. Russia he himself has not been idle in the past and Of the West politicalvarious support groups in academic, media circles (agents, influencing agents, sincere believers and s.) created these groups of Russia national By consistently propagating the need to respect their interests, they were able to believe in this idea in their communities and form a broad circle to defend it. Even Putin Many skeptics of the regime say that the annexation of Crimea should be reconciled with the reality of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. snowUkraine’s “Finnishization” (non-alignment with the blocs) and in their foreign, security policy, taking into account the interests of Moscow). No case of Western societies and unwilling to wage war under condition and He feared that he would put pressure on his government to pay attention to Russia’s demands. Why Ukraine is important and Europe, why relations with Russia have cooled because of it and It is not understood at the public level in the United States and was not supported.

Moscow was thought that, Even if not all of his demands are made on such a favorable basis, there is a high chance that at least part of the post-Soviet space will be accepted, and that this space will be recognized as an exclusive, legitimate area of ​​interest for the Russian state. For this, the West will put pressure on Zelensky, forcing him to accept Russia’s terms of peace.

In short, the Kremlin has acted on the principle of “opportunity is opportunity.” But the analysis and I made a mistake in forecasting? The process is not over yet, but it seems so.

Biden In a very short time, the government was able to consolidate the entire West on this issue. The concept of “collective West”, which Russian propaganda likes to repeat, did not exist in practice, but now exists. (Of course that, These states will always have different interests, but unity on strategic issues and unit policy is important.) USA and The European Union has agreed on a real package of sanctions, unlike previous hollow sanctions against Russia. USA and NATO It does not leave Eastern Europe, but strengthens there by sending additional forces. This is the first time in the Western media since the end of the Cold War that, an anti-Russian propaganda is going on on this scale. AndThis is the first time since the Cold War that, At this level, an anti-Russian consensus has been formed. Germany, FranceA poll conducted in countries that have the best relations with Russia, such as Italy that, The majority of the population is in favor of supporting Ukraine. This is a very important change in European public opinion and also influences government policy. Of Russia 20The military intervention in Georgia in 08 and in Ukraine in 2014 took place in the silence of all Western structures, and now we see that, More attention is being paid to the problem than in Ukraine itself and Intensive PR work is being carried out, and it is felt that intelligence information is sometimes transmitted to the media in raw form without even processing. This is more than a sympathy for Ukraine, but a change of interest and stems from geopolitical realities. Biden After his election, his administration tended to reach an agreement with Russia (the Sullivan line), in which high-level emissaries were sent to Moscow, but apparently did not receive the support Washington expected in the case of China. Russia to the United States and NATOprovided by and The texts of the agreement he announced to the press were in fact issues raised in a closed dialogue with the United States. Moscow’s role in European geopolitics during the Soviet era to examine the consequences of the Cold War and Attempts to restore its influence are unacceptable to the United States. The division of control over Eastern Europe, the beginning of the road to world domination, is not part of US plans, according to Halford Mackinder, a well-known British geographer and one of the founders of geopolitics. This is confirmed by the deployment of additional forces to Poland, which borders Ukraine, and the military agreement with Slovakia. Both Eastern European countries have allowed the US military to use its territory and military airfields. (By the way, a similar agreement will be signed with Denmark.) that, has become a serious gambler Putin He feels the need to teach Russia. As a result Biden supporters of the administration’s toughness in Russian policy (Blinken line).

Currently, such a situation has arisen that, The crisis in Ukraine is likely to turn into a crisis in Russia.

Putin has now been forced to decide whether to attack Ukraine or withdraw its troops from the country. Both carry great risks. Perhaps, after the exercises, the army would be returned to its permanent location, but now – after so much noise, the world will consider it as Putin’s defeat of the “new big game”. At present, the Russian government calls the news that it will attack Ukraine a lie of the Anglo-Saxons and On the other hand, the leaders of the toy republics in eastern Ukraine are making statements aimed at preparing the ground for Russian military intervention with an undoubted directive they received from Moscow. This contradictory view may indicate that there are different views within the Russian state: it is possible that, one wing is in favor of military intervention, while the other is against it. The statement of Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, a senior official in the Russian Defense Ministry, is also interesting in this regard. Ivashov called on Putin to resign, stressing that the war with Ukraine would cast doubt on Russia’s existence and turn the two peoples into permanent enemies. It is unlikely that General Ivashov, known for his imperialist stance, could make such a statement on his own. that, he was encouraged by someone from “above”. Moscow The official denials about the attack on Ukraine are not conclusive and convincing and This may be another reason for the apparent contradiction that, Strict, clear denial of Russia’s West and Reduces deterrent effect on Ukraine and the game he set up has no meaning.

Although Russia has a military advantage over Ukraine, a new military intervention will lead to a bloody war and it will not be easy at all. The alleged US missile defense missile strikes could undermine Ukraine’s military capabilities, but any positive developments in Russia’s interests. political does not work. It is possible to expand the occupation zone in Ukraine by mobilizing ground forces, but it is not clear what this will bring to Moscow in a strategic sense, because Kiev will not go to a surrendering peace, but, as Ivashov said, hostility to Russia. and hatred will intensify, and the voices of pro-Russian circles in the West will be completely drowned out. This is another problem that, By deciding to intervene militarily, Putin will also confirm how easily US intelligence can obtain information from within the Russian state. However, the special services officer is proud of the fact that he has created a strong state for the past 22 years.

Two days ago, in talks in Berlin in the Normandy format, Kiev once again rejected Moscow’s demands, and yesterday Ukraine Milli Security and Pro-Russian NAS at a meeting of the Defense Council near the Russian border in Kharkov TV channelı and Sanctions were imposed on companies belonging to that group. (Until now, the free activity of propaganda mouthpieces in Ukraine close to the hostile state is in this country national shows that much remains to be done to build a state.) That is, Ukraine is all dry and Even at a time when Russian armies are gathering along the maritime borders, he demonstrates his fearlessness and the courage to reject Russia’s demands. The military readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight the Russian army is controversial, but it is known that it is psychologically prepared. This is a very important detail. Western sanctions for Russia and More than any other threat, Ukraine’s will to resist is a real problem.

So how can Putin get out of this situation without going to war, but protecting his face? There is a tried and tested model: Abkhazia and South Ossetian scenario. Moscow so-called DNR and By recognizing the LNR as an independent state, it can legalize its military presence and provide security for the toy republics. Although it is possible to abandon Plan A (reintegration of the so-called republics into Ukraine) and choose Plan B, the official propaganda decision is aimed at informing the domestic public about Putin’s “protection of the Russian world.” and will be presented as another victory in the direction of “unification”. Ukraine and Western natural that, They will react harshly to the incident, in which case new sanctions may be imposed on Russia. But if Ukraine gets rid of the claws of the moon, Ukrainian leaders will not consider this option a tragedy, even if they do not face it, because in the depths of their hearts, those lands inhabited by a ruined, brainwashed population have no special value. Sometimes 1-2 fingers to save the body victim It is necessary to give – once Karelia, Finland and as some other territories were forced to cede to the USSR. Finland is now a developed country, and by the way, this quiet country yesterday signed an agreement with the United States on the purchase of 64 F-35 fighter jets. Russia has disturbed the peace of all its neighbors, and you can see how the United States has benefited from this situation.

The article titled “Ukraine crisis turns into Russia crisis” was taken from pressklub.az



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