Intention to “hit the gas and fill the pot.”
Russia President Vladimir Putin stated on March 23 that, Moscow more oil-gas sales fees dollarsor will not accept in euros. He attacked Ukraine according to currencies of sanctioned countries trustcalled lost.
Putin Although it does not name specific names, this policy BritainCanada, Japan, Switzerland, UkraineUnited States and Europe It is known that he targeted the members of the union. Let `s note that, sanctions Russia sharply depreciates ruble, Russia It was withdrawn from international money transfers, and foreign exchange reserves were frozen.
V.Putin to the government to conduct operations in rubles and gave the central bank a week. Gazprom must make appropriate changes to the contracts.
Recall that, Europe annual 540 billion cubic meters gas up to 40 percent of consumption (160 billion cubic meters) from Russia.
Europe A number of leaders of the Union (EU) called Russia unfriendly gası and He mocked his demand to sell oil in rubles, calling it a breach of contract. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the EU summit in Brussels on March 24: “This is a unilateral decision, a breach of contract. and there will be an attempt to evade sanctions. We will not allow our sanctions to be evaded. From energy to us snowIt’s time to use it as blackmail. “
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called Putin’s decision a breach of contract. “I don’t think anyone in Europe knows what the ruble looks like, no one pays in rubles,” Slovenian Prime Minister Janesz Jansa told reporters.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba called Moscow’s demands “humiliating” and called on countries affected by the move not to back down.
Economist Rovshan Agayev believes that, Even if Russia’s demand to sell its gas in rubles is met, it is debatable that it will bring serious economic dividends:
“Europeans used to pay in euros and buy gas directly. If he agrees to this demand, he will pay in euros and rubles, and in Russian rubles he will buy Russian gas. In both cases, the euro will leave Europe for gas, and in both cases, the country will receive euros for gas sold to Russia. Undoubtedly that, From a technical point of view, such a calculation creates additional complexity and additional costs for currency exchange.
According to the expert according toInstead of Russia selling its gas in rubles snowin clever calculations national if the use of currency was conditional and theoretically snowIf the other side agreed to this condition, the process would be in Russia’s favor: “Both gas according to would buy euros, but also goods imported from Europe according to instead of spending euros, he would present his ruble. But in the current situation, Russia political Although it looks profitable from the point of view, it can be economically harmful. Because gas contracts are concluded for a long time and The depreciation of the ruble could make Russian gas cheaper for Europe. In any case, it is not realistic that the Europeans will agree to revise the terms of the agreement every month, adequate to exchange rate changes.
Political scientist Elxan Shahinoglu thinks so that, Putin’s decision is aimed at punishing European countries that criticize him, as well as strengthening the ruble dollars and plans to weaken the euro:
“European countries that buy gas from Russia have two choices: either to buy rubles in the Russian market and pay according to Putin’s wishes, or to give up Russian gas,” he said. If European countries pay in rubles, they will have decided against the sanctions against Russia in connection with the war of aggression in Ukraine. The cold months are almost over. In this regard, some European countries will make payments as before and try to find alternative energy markets for next year.
The expert believes that, It will be more difficult for Germany than European countries. “This country gets about half of its gas needs from Russia,” he said. Austria buys gas from Russia as specified in the contract according to He said he would continue to pay in euros. Poland has said it will not buy gas from Russia next year. Of Bulgaria and “Italy’s hope is in Azerbaijani gas,” he said.
If European countries refuse Russian gas one after another, which country will not be able to sell gas to Europe? and or sell to countries?
E.Shahinoglu said that, The Kremlin’s only hope is China: “Russia has built a pipeline to China. Pipeline transportation capacity 38 billion cubic meters. However, about half of this gas was transported during the year. The Kremlin plans to transport an additional 50 billion cubic meters of gas to China via the Siberian Power-2 pipeline. However, China is in no hurry to buy the amount of gas offered by Russia. Beijing uses Brussels’ strategy. China does not want to depend only on gas from Russia. China’s neighbors are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and It also buys gas from Turkmenistan. Russia offers China cheaper gas prices than these countries. In doing so, the Kremlin hopes that China will give preference to Russian gas. But even if prices are different, Beijing prefers to diversify its gas purchases. That means it that, Russia’s hopes for the Chinese market may not come true. ”
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