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The expert expects the war in Ukraine to escalate in 2-3 months

According to the analyst, Russia’s state machine can repress and force an army of millions, but the next day it will have a problem with food and weapons.

Russia to Ukraine snowThe next phase of the war may take several months, depending on the situation on the front. The statement came from US Presidential Adviser Jake Sullivan at a briefing on April 4. According to him according to, Russia troops are deployed in northern Ukraine to the Donbas.

According to US calculations according to, Russia Lugansk and It will focus on capturing the Donetsk region, thereby trying to cover up previous military failures in Ukraine.

The forces are retreating, but…

At the moment Russia army Sumi, Chernigov, Kyiv There are reports that he is leaving the provinces. Military expert Alexey Melnik He said on Current Time that, The Russian army is really leaving these regions, which is a necessary step. But according to the expert, this is an important success, but a victory holiday There is still much to do. Because now these forces are being regrouped, Russia may use its reserves in the coming months.

Britain intelligence information according toChernigov and Kyiv The forces withdrawn from the provinces will be trained, re-formed and armed for some time. That’s it according to The next stage of escalation can be expected in two or three months. He stressed.

Melnikov considers the period until May 9 critical, because he is the President of Russia Vladimir Putinat least Lugansk and The capture of the Donetsk region must be reported. After that, Russia will regroup the forces it has withdrawn from Ukraine and Preparations for a new wave of war will begin.

Operational targets

Putin and his command began to adjust to its operational goals. The main purpose of the operation – the destruction of Ukraine remains unchanged. In my opinion, what they now consider real – the occupied zone from the south along the Dnieper and Kharkiv is to expand to the line. Russia for the next 2-3 months snowwill put the goals of this operation on the glass “, – Melnikov said.

Analysts say the Dnieper is also a strategically important city for Russia in terms of military-industrial complex. “Russia’s plan is to either take control of it or simply destroy it.” – he says.

As for the Kherson region, the expert believes that Russia is trying to regain control there. Ukraine now the whole of Kherson region and Although it did not control the city of Kherson, Russia did not take full control of it. The expert says Russia’s main problem is to create a military-civilian administration. Although there is a military administration in the region, in 2014 Lugansk and The occupation government has not been established as in Donetsk, he stressed.

Recovery of losses

Melnikov is still at war with Russia 10He says he could lose up to 15,000 troops. With the wounded, the losses could be as high as 50,000. That’s it according to He also thinks it will take Russia two to three months to rebuild its retreating forces. “The minimum training course for a young soldier in the Soviet army was one month. The Russian army did not go far beyond the Soviet Union. ” He says.

According to the analyst, Russia’s state machine can repress and force an army of millions, but the next day it will have a problem with food and weapons.

“There are attempts to attract about 900 Syrian mercenaries. This is a serious destructive force. But from a strategic point of view, the situation will not change. Russia is now trying to use any reserves. “ Said Melnikov Ukraine He noted that the greater the success of the army, the more losses Russia will inflict.

Russia to Ukraine on February 24 snowhas launched a large-scale attack. The West has imposed tough financial sanctions on Moscow.

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