one is not mentioned, one was rejected …
April 6 in Brussels Europe President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev mediated by the head of the Union Council Charles Michel and The next meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ended in a positive way. Europe The union official said that, Significant progress has been made in the five-hour discussions.
Before we move on to his statement, let’s recall briefly that, The leaders were previously invited to Brussels on December 15 last year. Then both the parties to the conflict Europe The union representative was pleased that the discussions were held in a constructive atmosphere. Clarification of borders, opening of communications, return of captives, fate of the missing and Preliminary agreement was reached on the protection of the cultural iris. But passing 10Not a single step has been taken to solve the problems in more than 0 days.
In the region since that date and causing a radical change in the world Russia–Ukraine The war began and continues. Military in the South Caucasuspolitical Moscow, which controls and pursues this policy through conflict management, is now experiencing difficult times. Failure in the war, complete economic blockade by the West, Russia the collapse of the military machine myth, Europe and The intensification of the United States in the region, of course that, It cannot but influence the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinke to Ilham Aliyev before the talks and Calling Nicole Pashinyan, successful receipt of the EU mediation initiative and The agreements reached during the five-hour meeting mark the beginning of a new phase in the process.
Charles Michel told reporters according toit was decided at a productive meeting that, Start a concrete process to prepare a possible peace agreement and discuss all the elements necessary for this. It was also decided that, Establish a joint committee to deal with sensitive issues such as delimitation. That committee has strong communication and in this direction through coordination snowkeep in mind what progress will be made in the coming weeks.
A statement issued on behalf of Charles Michel on the meeting called for the EU to resolve tensions and ensure that the South Caucasus is safe, stable and peaceful for all people living in the region. and Armenia to turn into a prosperous place and The commitment to deepen cooperation with Azerbaijan is reiterated. President Michelle snowmutual trust and He stressed the importance of humanitarian gestures on both sides for peaceful coexistence. Release of detainees, including a comprehensive solution to the issue of missing persons, complete all humanitarian issues and He said a speedy solution was needed and that the EU was ready to support these efforts. The statement said that, The EU will continue to support confidence-building measures between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including demining.
Statement according to, President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan said he wanted a peace agreement between the two countries to be reached soon. It was decided to instruct the foreign ministers of the two countries to work on a future peace agreement that will address all important issues.
Demarcation of the border and The mandate of the Joint Border Commission to be established on delimitation is the delimitation of the bilateral border. and along the border, as well as near the border to ensure permanent security.
“President Michelle also mentioned it that, keeping forces at the right distance to prevent incidents and is a key element in reducing stress. President Michel EU recommendation and emphasizes readiness to support “– the statement says.
The leaders discussed the restoration of communication infrastructure between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as in the South Caucasus in a broad sense. Charles Michel welcomed the steps taken to restore the railway connection and called on the parties to effectively restore the highway connection.
Commenting on the results of the Brussels meeting, political scientist Farhad Mammadov said that, Although Charles Michel spoke about the progress since the December meeting, since then only Azerbaijan has taken a step forward: “The signing of a memorandum of understanding with Iran on the construction of a road to Nakhchivan, the continuation of work to strengthen the borders can be attributed to this. Charles Michel mine clearance, reconstruction of the area and Economic and He promised financial support to the Investment Plan. It seems that this assistance will be implemented within the financial package announced by the European Union to the countries of the region.
Farhad Mammadov reports that, The biggest innovation at the Brussels meeting is the deepening of the bilateral format. According to him according tothe first step in this direction was taken at the Sochi meeting in November last year: “We want to establish a bilateral commission on the border and then we agreed on a one-on-one meeting in December last year. Although this time there was no face-to-face meeting, they promised that, new formats, a concrete agenda will emerge. What can these formats consist of:
– Armenia and One-on-one meetings of Azerbaijani leaders;
– An agreement that the foreign ministers will discuss the peace agreement in a bilateral format without mediators;
– Meeting of personal representatives;
– Delimitation by the end of April and It is planned to establish a mandated, bilateral Joint Border Commission to deal with security issues. Thus, the expansion of bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and is starting to deepen. “
Expressing his expectations that the agreements reached at the Bressel meeting will be implemented, the political scientist is not so optimistic:
“It simply came to our notice then execution level, we have a negative experience, such as not taking steps until specific dates. 11 January The trilateral statement of 2021 set deadlines for the intergovernmental commission, but no progress has been made. This time we will not wait long, there is only a month. “
The expert emphasizes that, The framework of bilateral cooperation allows Armenia to prolong the process, but setting specific deadlines should limit their ability to manipulate. “Experience shows that, This time, if they are stupid, Baku will continue to use pressure mechanisms “– he noted.
The political scientist added that, Russia’s reaction to the Brussels agreements 10 It will be known later in the day after Pashkina’s visit to Moscow: “For the past year and a half Russia it became more active after the West’s mediation initiatives increased. After that, let’s see what Moscow will do. In general, this is one of the positive results of this meeting that, There is no more OSCE Minsk Group. The issues are discussed only between the states themselves.
Political scientist Elxan Shahinoglu says that, It is possible to say that several results were achieved at the meeting:
“First, the parties stressed the need to address unresolved humanitarian issues. These include the European Union’s demining, assistance to the population affected by the conflict, and rehabilitation and expert in reconstruction work and financial support applies. Armenian officials everywhere raise the issue of “return of Armenian captives” against Azerbaijan. That’s it snowAzerbaijani officials raise the issue of the fate of thousands of Azerbaijani prisoners of war in the First Karabakh War. Armenia is trying to remain silent on this issue.
Second, the establishment of a joint commission to delimit the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia by the end of April and meeting is planned. The mandate of the joint border commission is the delimitation of the bilateral border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, along the border and will consist of ensuring a stable security situation in its vicinity.
Third, according to the statement, it was decided to instruct the foreign ministers to prepare a future peace agreement that will address all necessary issues.
Fourth, the leaders discussed the restoration of communication infrastructure between Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially in the South Caucasus.
The political scientist adds that, Minsk Group in a joint statement of leaders and There is not a single sentence about Karabakh: “This is for the benefit of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is not interested in negotiations within the Minsk Group and He does not want international organizations to deal with the Karabakh issue after the war, it is an internal matter. Negotiations within the European Union instead of the Minsk Group are beneficial for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan European Union and It has close cooperation with the countries of the Union, against the background of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and Europe’s oil in Azerbaijan and gasneed increased. “Given Brussels’ interest in mediation, Baku needs to speed up the process of signing a strategic partnership agreement with the European Union.”
E.Shahinoglu stressed that, The points highlighted in Brussels are in favor of Azerbaijan, but this does not mean that that, The items mentioned in the joint statement will be implemented as soon as possible.
The expert believes that, The Russian factor should also be taken into account in the EU’s mediation initiatives: “During the first meeting of the leaders in Brussels, Russia had not yet intervened militarily in Ukraine and then the Kremlin could have been more tolerant of EU mediation. But since Russia started the war of aggression against Ukraine and After the European Union imposes tough sanctions on Moscow, the Kremlin will try to prevent Brussels from mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Not accidental that, Nicole Pashinyan was in Brussels against Yerevan rally ceasefire violated in Tovuz On the other hand, Sergey Lavrov invited his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan to Moscow on April 8. Probably a detail of Mirzoyan’s meeting in Brussels reportwill be required. “
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