Do Russians really support Putin?
Researchers Philip Chapkovsky and They write Max Schaub that, It is possible to falsify sympathy for fear of repression, but it is not easy to show that this mechanism works
Opinion polls of both independent and state-controlled companies in Russia since the start of the Ukrainian occupation on February 24 President Vladimir Putinb and shows increased support for the government. RFE / RL correspondent Mike Ekel investigated the extent to which the polls reflected reality.
Levada Center recently released a survey Putinsupport reached 83 percent. But academics, social researchers, in Russia social Those who closely observe the trends see in these figures signs that the Russians do not want to speak openly, or even fear.
“Falsification of sympathy”
Researchers at the London School of Economics report on April 6 Russia investigated “falsification of sympathy” in public opinion polls. That is, respondents political do they hide their true feelings in matters.
Researchers Philip Chapkovsky and Max Schaub they write that, It is possible to falsify sympathy for fear of repression, but it is not easy to show that this mechanism works:
“In any case, people will not say that they are hiding the real objects of sympathy, or that they are reluctant to say so openly.”
Researchers are conducting an experiment Russia developed an online sociological tool called Toloka, which involved 3,000 adults and four of them social They asked if they supported the issue: same-sex marriage, restrictions on abortion, the war in Ukraine, cash payments for poor Russians.
In an April 4 survey, sociologists used a “list experiment.” Half of the respondents Ukraine a list of three questions was asked about the war; The other half was given a list of four questions.
An open question
Researchers also asked respondents an open-ended question: “Do you support the war?”
68% of Russians answered “yes” to this open question. However, in the list experiment, support for the war fell to 53 percent.
“When Russians are asked if they support the war, do they tell the truth?” According to our experiment, this is not the case. “ – researchers write.
Many Russians have little idea of the war in Ukraine. Russia seeming to be the main target in the early days of the war Kyiv Withdrawing troops around, large cities including Mariupol were captured.
Moreover, Russia’s losses are not widely discussed. Ukraine army of Russia 18 thousand 500, USA and Western intelligence 10 claims to have killed more than a thousand soldiers. But Russia released official statistics on March 25, with 1,351 deaths.
Levada was criticized
Two days after Levada’s request was announced, the director of the Russian program at the Royal College of London Sam Green criticized the results. He wrote on Twitter that, Russians hide their true feelings, and Levada must also disclose what percentage of respondents did not participate in the survey.
RFE / RL from Levada, its director Denis Volkovcould not get a comment from.
Volkov was speaking at an online discussion on April 5 organized by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations that, Even before the war, there were clear indications that public opinion in Russia was shifting in favor of the Kremlin according to The latest figures should not come as a surprise.
According to him according toin January, Russia Ukraine Although the Russians did not shout “war” when they gathered troops on the border, they were “morally ready for it.”
Support is not monolithic, but…
Volkov recalls the year 2014, Putin Even after the annexation of the Crimean region of Ukraine, support for it increased sharply. But he added that support for Putin has not changed.