Is Russia still strong? The expert answers
Different experts differ on the strength of the parties in the fighting in eastern Ukraine
Ukraine The government says Russia has launched a long-awaited major offensive in the east of the country.
But some military experts believe that, this is not yet a large-scale attack and is a preparation for a real attack.
Pentagon spokesman Con Korbi is also of this opinion that, Russia prepares for a larger-scale attack.
According to analysts, Russia one of the goals of the command Ukraine forces Kharkiv and keeping them under the protection of other cities and directing them to the east snowis to buy a bottle.
But the CNA Institute in Arlington Russia director of research department Michael Kofman considers that, Russian troops have been disbanded and the next attack is weaker than expected.
“Russia has lost half of its forces”
Military expert interviewed by Current Time Mikhail Samus is also of this opinion that, The attack on the Donbas has been going on for several days:
“For some reason, Western experts are waiting that, Russia must conduct its offensive in the style of World War II. I think that, The nature of this attack will be different, because the Battle of Kursk in Russia and or simply no resources left to attack in the style of other World War II battles. However, Russia Ukraine will bring supplies with a second echelon to break the resistance of its troops and will develop an attack from the wings. This is an attempt to break the defense with the available forces. I am not sure that this attempt will be successful. “
Samus also tried to quantify Russian forces. He said that, to different assessments according to Russia currently owns about half of the group on February 24:
“It simply came to our notice then that, Russia virtually lost half of its forces in the battles of the first phase and He has not been able to recover since fleeing northern Ukraine, despite the passage of time. However, regrouping and to recruit new personnel, to restore equipment and There was time for a new attack. “
The balance has changed
According to the expert, the remaining Russian forces are mainly divided into two groups. One of them will try to break through the defense from the south and the other from the north:
“I think so that, Russia simply has no chance of success. I have such an impression that, not generals in the operation, KGB officers Putin leads. If you remember, before this war, retired generals called not to carry out this operation, saying that it would be a disaster for the Russian army. But Putin did not listen. That’s it that, In principle, the outcome of this attack will be the same as in the first phase. “
Reporter: But American analysts say that, Ukraine’s reserves are less than Russia’s.
Samus responded to this argument as follows:
“It simply came to our notice then that, on the map and If you look at the statistics, Ukraine is smaller than Russia. The Ukrainian army is also much smaller than the Russian army. Statistics according to Tens of thousands of Russian tanks and There are hundreds of armored vehicles. There are no hundreds of planes in Ukraine. In this sense, yes, in purely statistical terms, Russia’s reserves are greater. But these reserves were even more in February. In this sense, in February and If we compare the current balance of forces, this ratio has changed in favor of Ukraine. “
Even if they catch Lap Donbas
According to the expert, Russia has suffered huge losses in changing this balance and The growing support of Western allies for Ukraine has played a special role: