Putin’s Moldovan scenario
Despite military failures in Ukraine, Russia President Vladimir Putin may claim to seize larger land
In recent days, a series of bombings in Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria has raised concerns that the Kremlin is waging war on the country. But Ukraine is facing stiff opposition Russia How realistic is this for you?
Moldova has not controlled Transnistria since 1992, Russia maintains about 2,000 troops in the region under the guise of peacekeeping.
Kyiv has already accused Moscow of masterminding the bombings. Moldova was more cautious. Pro-Western President Maya Sandu has accused “pro-war factions” of fomenting tensions in Transnistria.
Russian army generali said last week that, Moscow wants to capture southern Ukraine, including the port city of Odessa, which means “another way to Transnistria.”
Putin’s dream scenario
Despite the military failures in Ukraine, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin may claim to seize larger land. This was stated by a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham in Britain Stefan Wolf He told RFE / RL in a written statement.
“This is Putin’s dream scenario,” he said. It will seize the whole of southern Ukraine, recognize Transnistria, and then cause unrest in the rest of Moldova, including Gagauzia. – Wolf says. Gagauzia is an autonomous region in Moldova, inhabited mainly by Turkic-speaking Orthodox Christians.
According to some, general Rustam Minnekayev simply voiced a new idea in the upper echelons of the Russian army.
“The Russian army believes that, It is a serious mistake to limit the original goals of the war. They are now making such an argument that, Russia Ukraine not with NATO is fighting with “ – and this Andrey Soldatov and Irina Borogan wrote in an article.
Is the strength of the army left?
Some experts doubt that Russia could launch a new offensive in the region. Head of the Russian Studies Program at the CAN think tank in Virginia Michael Kofman He writes on Twitter that, The fighting capacity of the Russian army has sharply decreased and cannot compensate for the losses.
Russia has so far twice reported casualties in the war in Ukraine, with 1,351 people killed on March 25. Ukraine Officials say more than 21,000 Russian servicemen have been killed so far on April 27.
Considering Russia’s loss of military equipment, “Moscow has no military power left to do that,” he said. They are trying to achieve serious success in the Donbas. “ – Wolf says.
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014 to support separatists in the country’s eastern Donbas region.
Forces in Transnistria
According to Wolf according toIt is unclear whether Russia will be able to retain the newly occupied territories. The current plan Ukraine envisages the occupation of one third of its territory.
Polish analyst Konrad Muzika also doubts that Russia will expand its attack. “Russia’s focus is on the Donbas and to the north-east of Kherson “ He says.
Even if Moscow decides to attack Transnistria, it will not receive much support from the military there with weak equipment. East of Vilnius Europe From the Research Center Dionysus Kenusa he says.
“Russia has about 2,000 operational forces in Transnistria. Why should Russia open a new front in such a situation? ” – Kenusa says.