Moldova on the verge of war? Four versions and possible results
Within 48 hours, a series of explosions and shells were fired in the region, damaging the building of the Ministry of State Security (a body not affiliated with Moldovan structures in Transnistria). Russia Television and The towers of the radio and television center belonging to the Federal State Unitary Enterprise of the Radio Broadcasting Network have been demolished.
“The purpose of these incidents is to create excuses for the escalation of the security situation in Transnistria, which is not under the control of the Moldovan constitutional authorities,” the government Reintegration Bureau said in a statement.
Who can be the “conductor” of these events? And How will Moldova respond to this?
Let’s take a look at the four most discussed versions today.
Russia. A strange coincidence
Tensions in Transnistria Deputy Commander of Russia’s Central Military District, general It coincided with Rustam Minnekayev’s statement. He said on April 22 that, Russia Entered the “second phase of a special operation.” and The goal is to capture not only the Donbas, but the entire southern part of Ukraine.
Russian general said that, “Occupying the south of Ukraine is one of the ways out of Transnistria, where there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”
The status of the author of such a serious statement and The place where this idea was voiced (at a meeting of the Union of Defense Industry Enterprises of the Sverdlovsk region) raised many questions.
Can this statement be taken as a change in the concept of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine?
Is Minnekayev voicing the Kremlin’s position?
To what extent does this position correspond only to the previously stated goal of “protecting the population of the Donbas”?
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on the military campaign and He said he had not studied the situation. Russia The Defense Ministry said in response to a BBC inquiry that the matter was being investigated, but generaldid not deny what he said.
Commenting on the recent events in Transnistria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said that, Moscow hopes to avoid interfering in the settlement process in the region. Many in Moldova saw the statement as a demonstration of the Kremlin’s true intentions.
Moldova. Do not allow the May 9 demonstration
The provocations of the Russian-speaking population in Moldova do not rule out that the government itself is organizing, the aim is to increase the level of terrorist threat in the country and May 9 all holiday they think that their actions should be completely banned.
On April 19th President Maia Sandu of Russia to Ukraine snowthe use of the Georgian ribbon in the context of “military aggression”, as well as the “Z” and Prohibiting the display of “V” symbols the law signed. To those who break this law snowLarge fines are imposed.
Sandu stressed that, The ban has nothing to do with the symbols of the war 77 years ago, but only what is happening in Ukraine today.
However, the Moldovan socialists and communists, including their Russian-speaking voters that, The government’s real goal is to completely change the history of World War II and is an attempt to deprive the majority of citizens of cultural and historical heritage.
They are reminiscent that, Action in support of the President’s policy and The Solidarity Party’s proposal to ban the screening of Soviet films about the Great Patriotic War is currently being discussed in parliament.
Holiday supporters of the marches say that, Official Chisinau can use the escalation in Transnistria as an excuse to cancel any mass action.
However, the highest “red” level of terrorist threat has been identified in the region for the next 15 days and Authorities had to cancel the Victory Parade scheduled for May 9.
After an emergency meeting of the Security Council of Moldova on Tuesday President Maia Sandu said that, information in the government according toThe region’s own forces were involved in aggravating the situation in Transnistria.
Transnistria. Accelerate the arrival of Russian troops
With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the allegation of harassment of Russian-speaking citizens in Moldova has resumed.
Russian Embassy in Chisinau offers language, religion, nationalcultural and He said that discrimination was frequent in other areas and appealed to the Russians that, life and In case of danger to their health, send an e-mail to the embassy with an emergency signal ([email protected]) send information about it.
General Rustam Minnekayev said so openly that, It is important for the Russian army to advance towards Transnistria, where the Russian-speaking population is being suppressed. The general did not say what the harassment was.
Moldova has demanded that Russia refrain from making statements that create tension in society, calling them baseless. But they admit it in Chisinau that, Transnistria has always been Moscow’s tool in resolving geopolitical issues in the region and it is the same now.
After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, many in Transnistria began to hope that Russia would follow suit. About 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in the territory of this unrecognized republic and According to many, they can ensure the unimpeded passage of Russian tanks into Moldova.
To the official version of Tiraspol according to, Attacks in Transnistria are organized by Ukrainian saboteurs. Their goal is to involve the region in the conflict. But the head of the region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, did not explain why Ukraine needed it.
“Ukraine army MTN RPG-22 found at the site of the fire and Does not use RPG-27 pipes. A very limited number of them, including Russia, have their armies. Ukraine wanted to put them under attack by getting them? It is impossible to give an unequivocal answer to this question, “said Nikolai Kuzmin, a Transnistrian analyst.
According to him according to, about half of the region’s population supports Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and a quarter of them do not fully understand the nature of what is happening. Many are apolitical and others think only of their own economic interests, while others fear the prospect of being at war.
The expert notes that, Against this background, it is an exaggeration to say that everyone is waiting for the arrival of the Russian army.
Ukraine. Capture the ammunition depot
The Transnistrian village of Kolbasna, which borders Ukraine, is home to the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. This warehouse was established in the 1940s, but most of the weapons were Soviet troops from the ADR, Czechoslovakia and gathered there after leaving the other countries of the former socialist camp.
Such a version sounds more and more that, suffering from a shortage of weapons Ukraine is extremely interested in capturing that reservoir.
Western military experts do not take this version seriously, because in the current war, Ukraine’s anti-tank systems and needs the latest versions of anti-aircraft systems, and in a post-Soviet ammunition depot, they can never be.
Moreover, wheeled after long-term conservation and or a crawler vehicle cannot move immediately. And Most importantly, in the current situation, where all forces are concentrated in the east, it would be completely unreasonable for Ukraine to deliberately sabotage the rear on the western flank, experts say.
But in the West, they think that, The warehouse in the sausage must be taken care of immediately.
“This is 22,000 tons of ammunition protected by the Russian contingent just two kilometers from the Ukrainian border. […] As we have seen, now Transnistria can have the opportunity to open a fourth front, “said Isaac Evans, an OWP expert on frozen conflicts and a peacekeeping strategist.
According to him, the warehouse in Transnistria will cover the entire region, including Kyivposes a threat and Moldova must resume talks on its disposal as soon as possible.
Britain has repeatedly drawn the attention of the West to this problem.
The head of the country’s delegation to the OSCE, Neil Bush, has repeatedly stated that, “We urge Russia to immediately withdraw ammunition from the facility in Kolbasna,” he said and We call for a proposal to resume the destruction process. “
What will happen next?
On Tuesday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu held an emergency meeting of the Security Council. There, the strengthening of patrols on the border with Moldova and Transnistria, public order and infrastructure facilities responsible for security and It was decided to increase the level of protection of law enforcement agencies.
Europe Union Chisinau and He is extremely concerned about the possibility of further tensions between Tiraspol. To be cold-blooded on the part of the EU and asks not to succumb to provocations.
According to political scientist Oazu Nantoini, a member of the Moldovan parliament, a person who analyzes all possible scenarios should ask himself – “Cui prodest?” (“Who benefits?”)
“We have to ask ourselves a question that, who is satisfied with this situation. The Republic of Moldova? Absolutely not. Ukraine? No, because Ukraine must concentrate all its forces on real war zones with Russia. The regime in Tiraspol? Given that that, This regime is known for its mafia nature rather than representing Russia’s interests that, he will be more dissatisfied than satisfied, ”Nantoi said.
Deputy does not exclude that, Russia to destabilize the eastern regions of Moldova and It has carried out provocations there to force Ukraine to withdraw some of its forces from its current war zones and deploy them there to protect its southwestern border.
“It’s an attempt to find some logic in what happened,” he said. I consider that, Governments of Moldova and Ukraine and These provocations will not have serious consequences unless the regime in Tiraspol is interested in destabilizing it.
An OSCE mediation delegation will arrive in Moldova by the end of this week. But Western partners believe so that, convergence of the front line and Amid the provocations, Chisinau and Tiraspol must agree to direct talks.
On Tuesday, the Moldovan Information Security Service (ISS) began an investigation into what happened with the Transnistrian authorities.