Russia’s continued pressure has seriously affected the Armenian government’s willingness to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. In any case, recent statements from official Yerevan give grounds to draw such a conclusion. Indefinitely from the beginning of May protest Although the opposition tried to force the protests, it failed to gain serious public support. But Prime Minister N. Pashinyan 20 Most of the statements he made after returning from a meeting with Putin in Moscow in April that, Brussels has moved away from its position since the meeting. On April 7, Pashinyan said that “the West wants us to lower our expectations of the status of Karabakh,” but now it is impossible to sign any peace agreement without the consent of the Armenians of Karabakh. Recall that, During his visit to the Netherlands, Pashinyan also made statements that irritated official Baku, and official Baku condemned him for trying to disrupt the negotiation process.
In Dushanbe last week Russia Azerbaijan with the participation of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and No encouraging statement was made after the meeting of the Armenian Foreign Ministers. Lavrov said that, Azerbaijan and Negotiations between Armenia should be conducted in the manner agreed by the presidents. This, 10 is to recall the November statement and it does not mention a bilateral peace agreement. Russia Statements made under the patronage of the representative of Moscow, the boundaries indicated therein and spoke about the implementation of agreements on communications. His Armenian counterpart Mirzoyan simply repeated the same sentences. Jeyhun Bayramov is a bit dissatisfied 10 He stressed the importance of implementing the November statement.
In general, none of the recent statements from official Yerevan mentions the points agreed at the Brussels meeting.
Last week, Armenian Prime Minister’s Special Envoy Edmon Marukyan announced a six-point package proposed by Yerevan to Baku to start peace talks with Azerbaijan. It is written in the second paragraph of the document that, Armenia to Azerbaijan snowThere has never been a territorial claim and no. It is noted that, Armenia recognized the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan in accordance with the agreement with Azerbaijan on the establishment of the CIS dated December 8, 1991. Armenia ratified it on February 18, 1992 (that is, at the time of signing, the parties joined the union and recognized each other).
The third paragraph of the proposals reads: Ensuring the security of the Armenians of “Nagorno-Karabakh” for the Armenian side, their rights and “Respect for the freedoms of the people, as well as the determination of the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, is of fundamental importance.”
In the next paragraph 10 November 202011 January and It is important to fulfill the obligations set out in the tripartite statements of November 26, 2021 (return of prisoners of war, opening of communications).
The Armenian side states that, Yerevan UN Charter, Helsinki Final Act and International Civil-Political It is ready to start negotiations on a peace agreement with Azerbaijan on the establishment of interstate relations on the basis of the pact.
In the last paragraph – 6, the Armenian side appealed to the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to organize the relevant talks.
Recall that, In February, official Baku issued a document to Armenia on the preparation of a peace agreement based on the following five basic principles:
– From threatening each other’s security in interstate relations, political independence and threat to territorial integrity and as well as the use of force UN To refrain from other cases that do not comply with the objectives of the Charter;
– Delimitation of the state border and demarcation, establishment of diplomatic relations;
Thus, the positions of the parties are clear and There are many fundamental contradictions. First of all, Armenia wants to determine the status of the few Armenians remaining in Karabakh. Official Baku stated immediately after the war that, Armenians living in the region will not be given any status, but like Azerbaijani citizens, they are ready to guarantee the protection of all their rights.
Secondly, Armenia wants the negotiation process to be conducted under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, which still does not exist. Azerbaijan’s position is as follows: the mediators are only Azerbaijan and They can contribute to the peace talks between Armenia. There will be no return to the format of pre-war negotiations and The issue of Karabakh cannot be discussed. The process can be continued only after the 44-day war, taking into account the new realities in the region.
Third, Armenia’s mutual confirmation of Azerbaijan’s “absence of territorial claims of states against each other and making a legal commitment not to file such a claim in the future. ”
Finally, although Armenia has stated its recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, it has not stated that it has renounced its claims to the upper part of Karabakh. This is also unacceptable for official Baku. Azerbaijan UNterritorial integrity adopted by and wants sovereignty to be accepted unconditionally.
One of the noteworthy points is that Armenia refers only to statements made under the patronage of Russia. December 15, 2021 and 6 April 20In Brussels in 02 Europe The statements agreed by the leaders of the countries through the union are not mentioned. This is quite a contradictory point.
There are some overlapping items in the proposals. Azerbaijan and Armenia emphasizes the importance of fulfilling the obligations contained in the post-war statements. But so far no steps have been taken to open the borders and restore communications.
Political scientist Farhad Mammadov says that, In the last few weeks, there have been events that could disrupt the negotiation process. According to him according to, it will be clear in the coming weeks in which direction events will develop. The expert noted several important points:
“Opening of communications by the Armenian Foreign Minister in Dushanbe on May 16-17 and Working Group on Demarcation of Borders Moscow His statement about the meeting has not yet been confirmed by the Azerbaijani authorities. That is, if the meeting does not take place, then it is possible to assume that, At a time when Armenia is changing its concept of peace treaty principles, Azerbaijan sees no reason to negotiate;
The six principles voiced by the Armenian side are contradictory and Armenia does not give up territorial claims against Azerbaijan, “security” of Karabakh Armenians and Demonstrates keeping the issue of “status” on the agenda. The expected reaction of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry to these six principles will be a demonstration of Yerevan’s violation of the negotiation process;
The Armenian side claims that the above-mentioned issues are fundamental for them in the six principles presented to Baku. Then Azerbaijan must also demonstrate its commitment to its principles and formalize its territorial claims against Armenia. This may happen in the coming weeks. For example, the illegitimacy of the transfer of Zangazur from the Azerbaijani SSR to the Armenian SSR parliament statement can be accepted.
The daily reports of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry on the violation of the ceasefire in Armenia give grounds to speculate that, in parallel, neutralizing the threat and There will be an intensification of armed clashes on the border to determine the border.
F.Mammadov adds that, Azerbaijan and The May 14 meeting of the Turkish presidents will determine the outlook for the next week or two. “Azerbaijan has a lot of leverage to influence Armenia, especially its domestic political agenda that, they can disturb Pashtunya’s comfort. It is enough if he refreshes his memory of recent history “– said the political scientist.
The expert is convinced that, The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has already announced the steps and actions of Armenia and keeps records of statements: “This will form the basis of the ministry’s statement on how Armenia violated the negotiation process. I remembered that, Such a list was announced on September 27, 2020. The current situation is March 2020April similar to the situation in the months… “