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Can Western arms war change in Ukraine’s favor?

Russia Despite the problems of the army, the number of firearms and soldiers is greater than in Ukraine. Will the new weapons allow Ukraine to overcome all these obstacles?

Britain Ministry of Defence Russia reports that some commanders in the army have been fired. This, Russia may be due to the weak performance of the army in Ukraine.

Russia, which launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, has faced stiff resistance and has turned its attention to the eastern Donbas region as it has been unable to capture major cities in the north. At the moment Ukraine forces control Kharkov, and Russia in the Donbas snowworksnowwork is progressing though.

Greatness vs. tactics

Retired U.S. Special Forces Colonel, Madison Policy Forum executionçı director Lyam Collins In an interview with RFE / RL, Reid Stendish assessed what happened on the front.

Collins says that despite the size of the Russian military, it is poorly trained, poorly managed, and has poor logistics.

“Large-scale Russian forces are tactically skilled Ukraine fights with his army. For this reason, a larger Russian force will make some progress. But on a tactical level, the Ukrainians will always be ahead of them. The Ukrainians did the same in Kiev, and now we see it in Kharkov. I expect this to happen in the Donbas as a result, Ukraine forces will be able to push Russia back from some positions ” – emphasizes the military.

Even if Lugansk is completely captured…

A new analysis by the Institute for War Studies shows that Russian forces have abandoned plans to lay siege to the city of Izyum in the north and the city of Donetsk in the south, instead focusing on capturing Luhansk Oblast. Will Russia achieve this?

In response to this question, Collins says that Russia has not really achieved anything. Although they have big goals at the initial stage, they want to reduce their scale and achieve the progress they can present as a victory. According to the analyst, even if Moscow captures Luhansk as a whole, a solution must be found through negotiations, and Ukraine is not compromising its land.

“In the long run, a sustainable option seems difficult for both sides, and both sides must reach an agreement to end the war. At present, there is no agreement for both countries. “– Collins emphasizes.

For a better position at the negotiating table

“So the battle will continue until you get a better position at the negotiating table?” Collins says that’s the essence of war. Whether it is an internal conflict, a civil war, an interstate war, a war waged in parallel with the negotiations, one side realizes that it is no longer strong enough.

“For the Ukrainians, this will happen when the means of war are reduced, the ability to fight is lost. For them, it is a matter of strength, I believe that even if they lose this power, then they will resort to guerrilla warfare.

Russia can do so when it realizes that its losses have reached catastrophic levels. They inflict great losses, however President Vladimir Putin It is very difficult for authoritarian leaders such as – says the expert.

As for the role of Western weapons in Ukraine’s advance, the analyst said that artillery systems and attack drones dominated Kharkov. According to Collins, the United States and other Western countries did not expect Ukraine to show such resistance, so they sent a limited number of weapons systems at the beginning of the war. Ukraine, on the other hand, has done very well, and now fears that these weapons will be handed over to Russia, lost, or eventually taken over by Russia have diminished.

Concentrate on smaller areas

Despite the problems of the Russian army, the number of firearms and soldiers exceeds that of Ukraine. Will the new weapons allow Ukraine to overcome all these obstacles? Collins of this Kyiv and Kharkiv He noted that the Russians were advancing again, despite weak logistics and weapons systems. So the question is, can the Russians consolidate in smaller areas and maintain that success?

“Ukraine is also concentrating on smaller areas,” he said. Tactically, they have shown superiority over Russian forces. But Russia’s complete loss could take months or years. “ – says a military expert.

Collins advises not to evaluate Russia’s war in Ukraine on a daily basis. Because the war is entering a longer phase. According to him, Russia’s successes or failures should be viewed on a weekly, sometimes weekly, basis.

“Moscow can declare a semi-autonomous republic or say that it has annexed parts of Ukraine. However, this does not mean that they have made progress. This will be pure Russian rhetoric. Notice how the situation has changed in reality. “ – says the analyst.

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