“I do not share the euphoria that everything will end tomorrow with a quick victory for Ukraine.” This opinion was expressed by a Ukrainian military expert, a retired colonel, Ukraine It belongs to Sergei Grabsky, a former employee of the Ministry of Defense and a participant in peacekeeping operations in Kosovo and Iraq.
The military expert says Russia still has an advantage in terms of forces and means. He is now answering questions that are on the minds of many in Ukraine: “When will there be radical changes on the front?”
– Now we see a tendency for people who sympathize with Ukraine to look forward to a radical turn in the war. Ukraine When will the army finally launch a strategic offensive and start expelling the invaders from their lands? When can we expect a Ukrainian attack?
– It is too early to talk about it. I do not share the claims about the launch of a strategic counterattack – such actions require very careful preparation. It should be understood that Ukraine is currently facing a very serious opponent who has an advantage in terms of force and means. In order to defeat it, it is necessary to have the advantage of quantity and quality. Here, the advantage of quality is even more important, because the enemy uses quite outdated weapons and military equipment. Therefore, both we and our allies understand that snowis waiting for a very difficult phase of the struggle. The enemy is still strong enough and is trying hard to make the most of the opportunities it can get in this war. Now we have a difficult time, the situation forces us to mobilize. But to say that tomorrow will be a turning point in the war – I will not say so. In this war, a month, even 2-3 months, is not enough to change the situation strategically.
– Why do you say that Russia “Has an advantage in force and means today”? In Ukraine Russia The contingent is estimated at about 150 thousand people. Meanwhile, mobilization is underway in Ukraine, and it is estimated that about 700,000 people could be mobilized. Moreover, they write and talk a lot about the supply of Western equipment and weapons. Thus, Ukraine must ultimately have an advantage (at least) in both resources and weapons Russia if it does not declare a general mobilization).
-Yes, mobilization is underway. However, it should be understood that there are time-consuming stages of combat training. It would be a crime to throw untrained units into battle. As for snowto the other side, to Russia. Even if we take the figure of 150 thousand, it is approximately the total capacity of the Russian Armed Forces 10-15 percent. To us snowIf we are talking about a fighting contingent, it means that they have the ability to rotate and throw new units into battle. And they do. Of course, they do not use these formations very effectively, they throw units that have just left the battlefield into battle. This means that their reserves are not sufficiently developed. We have a few more than we have, but not enough to make a difference. As for weapons, if we talk about anti-tank missiles, it means that they are really quite numerous, they are widely and successfully used by the Ukrainian military. If we talk about the supply of other types of weapons, then their number is small. The United States gave 90 howitzers, which is only 5 divisions. On such a large front, this is not much. If we talk about other weapons, then they are just starting to arrive. If we talk about tanks from the Czech Republic and Poland, then there are dozens of armored vehicles, which, of course, can not immediately change the situation. This help allows us to stop the enemy, to stop him, to force him to start defending – to strike later. But the technology needed to change the course of the war is just beginning. After all, there is distance, time and logistics for certain procedures. It is also time to master this technique. Our servicemen are now mastering this technique abroad – but you understand that it takes 2-3, even 5 months. Based on this, we need to understand what difficult days await us in the coming weeks and months. Therefore, I do not share the euphoria of some of our activists, as well as our friends abroad, who think that tomorrow Ukraine will attack and everything will end quickly with a victory. There will be no quick victory.
– Russia is trying to prevent the West from supplying equipment and weapons to Ukraine by simply firing on railways and fuel depots. Are there any problems with the delivery of weapons to the front and the lack of fuel?
– The enemy was able to seriously impede the supply of troops, and even the whole of Ukraine with fuel. As for the delivery of equipment, I will say this as a specialist, a transport engineer. As for the destruction of Russia’s transport infrastructure, 20thinks in terms of the twentieth century. Then iron way was the trunk. Today, however, this practice has been abandoned and attention is being paid to the use of combined delivery methods. Emphasis from railways car and weather directed to transport. Therefore iron way chasing the infrastructure with missiles is not so effective, the missile does not always hit the target. It is the civilian infrastructure that suffers the most from missile strikes. Aid to Ukraine cannot be stopped. Therefore, attacks on infrastructure have virtually changed from a method of war to a method of terror against the Ukrainian people.
– Since the beginning of the war, Russian military observers have said that Russian troops will besiege and close the rings around the Ukrainian units in Donbass, where the fiercest fighting is taking place. Is there really danger here?
– This is a logical strategy of Russia. Any military leader will say that attacking enemy positions “face to face” means condemning oneself to heavy losses. Therefore, their attempts to besiege Ukrainian troops in Donbass seem quite logical. Not surprisingly, they are able to achieve some local success in certain areas. We must understand the position of Ukraine. We are from every land yapwe do not work, we carry out maneuverable defense. It allows you to perform various maneuvers, including the withdrawal provided for in any military regulations. After all, it is more difficult to put troops under siege and cauldrons and then try to deliver them weapons and ammunition. It is better to leave, regroup and join the fight in new positions. It can be said that the Russians are learning their military tactics. These are no longer the pillars of unprepared stubborn progress, as they were in the early days of the war. With maneuverable defenses, we exhausted the Russian troops and minimized their attacks.