Russia wants a mandate for “peacekeepers” in Karabakh

Turning intermediaries into enemies Azerbaijan and Armenia The process of achieving peace between the two countries has stalled. Talk last week Russia From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Europe It is about the situation created by the statements made by the Union (EU).

Official Moscow states that European Union He wants to reach an agreement in the trilateral statements by bringing the parties together in Brussels. An unnamed high-ranking EU official said, “Brussels Azerbaijan–Armenia does not and does not intend to agree with Moscow on its steps to normalize relations. Currently both Baku“And Yerevan is wary of the Kremlin, given the recent geopolitical developments.”

Now Azerbaijan and Armenia The leadership process is seriously hesitant about how to move forward under the patronage of which power center. Though, Russia and the West offer its conditions are quite different. If Moscow wants to create a new situation in the region and freeze it again in the context of its interests, Brussels wants a step-by-step solution to the conflict between the parties to the conflict and the signing of a peace agreement. Baku and Yerevan are also pleased with the West’s attractive offer, but are wary of Russia’s inadequate strikes, which have once again demonstrated the world’s power in Ukraine.

Thus, there is a need to look at the process that Russia is taking in the region after the increase in Western activity. At the same time, it is necessary to list the expectations of the Kremlin from the parties to the conflict:

Moscow clearly does not want the West to return to the region. Europe Billions in the Union’s 3 South Caucasus countries dollars He is seriously concerned about the allocation of economic aid and the resolution of conflicts. That’s why he used the pressure levers in his hand.

First, by activating the opposition, media and agency networks in Armenia, Nicole Pashinyan keeps his government under serious pressure. In recent months, the streets of Yerevan have become the address of countless, in many cases, violent actions. Russia media and political The elite supports the Kocharyan-Sargsyan coalition, which is holding these protests.

Second, it revitalizes the Brussels-mediated process by reviving a Kremlin-sponsored tripartite working group after the 44-day war. Although going through the war 20 During the month, this format did not justify itself, as the interests dictated by Moscow do not correspond to a complete and comprehensive solution to the problem, nor to the current interests of the parties to the conflict. Specifically, Russia’s acceptance of its dominant position in transport corridors, in Karabakh To Azerbaijan the indefinite stay of the separatist-criminal regime, as well as the granting of an unregulated mandate to the peacekeeping contingent offer is.

Armenia does not have an open attitude to these demands. In principle, Yerevan is not opposed to other proposals, except for the full control of the Zangazur corridor by Moscow. Azerbaijan unequivocally considers the Kremlin’s conditions unacceptable.

First, the war is over and the conflict is over, and Azerbaijan must regain control of its territories and borders. Second, 10 November statement complete execution illegal Armenian armed groups must be expelled from the territory, and the separatist criminal regime must fall. Then transport corridors should be opened and borders should be clarified. Russia Of Azerbaijan considers the first two issues, which violate its sovereignty, to be unsolvable, and calls for the continuation of lengthy, fruitless negotiations on the issue of corridors and borders in the context of its own interests. Most importantly, it intends to strengthen the current status quo by providing unlimited mandates to peacekeepers.

Moscow and Baku Relations between the state and Ria Novosti have been strained for this reason information This is the reason why the separatist Beglaryan was given a tribune in the agency as a “minister of state.” Intensive ceasefire violations on the line of contact and on the border in recent days are also part of Russia’s crackdown. It is likely that the number and scope of such provocations will expand in the coming days.

Thus, Ukraine Russia, which has lost its international prestige and weakened in the war, is actively using the levers of influence in the South Caucasus to slow down the peace process. European Union Although it has made little progress in starting the process of demarcating the borders, it seems problematic that it will achieve more in the coming months. In particular, Armenia’s weak link binds the West, and Brussels and Washington are well aware that the ongoing street protests in Yerevan today could lead to a civil war or Armenia’s political further assassinations may occur in the elite. To Azerbaijan As for Moscow, its claws reach it, but Putin an ally in dire need of power Turkey factor insures us against many risks.

In the coming weeks, Russia’s offer of a mandate to peacekeepers will be openly discussed, and the positions of Baku and Yerevan will be clarified. At present, the talks are closed, and, of course, the Kremlin leadership has not yet clarified the issue, as Azerbaijan has set maximum requirements. It is unlikely that an agreement will be reached, so a long, tense war of nerves is ahead…

Turqut