‘Ukraine was able to take back those territories because …’
“We have not seen Ukraine be able to take back the territory that Russia has seriously defended”
Ukrainian forces are currently repelling Russian attacks in the city of Severodonetsk, but Moscow has not been able to take full control of the city. Severodonetsk and its twin city, Lisichansk, are strategically important for the Kremlin’s complete takeover of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Russian forces have captured large parts of Severodonetks. Its complete conquest could have a major impact on the next phase of the war.
A war in which the goals change several times
Ukrainian officials say more weapons and aid are needed to repel Russian forces. The United States and Britain have said they will send MLRS volley fire systems to Kiev, which can cover a distance of up to 80 km. Washington has said it will send HIMARS and Britain will send M270 systems.
RFE / RL correspondent Reid Stendish reports on the fighting in Severodonetsk. Corc Barrosreceived an interview from.
Barros says the Kremlin has shifted its priority to Severodonets and reduced attention to other areas of the front line in Ukraine. Analysts call it an interesting point, as the Kremlin has had to change its target several times since launching an attack on Ukraine in late February. The initial goal was to capture Kiev and other large cities in a short time. As this did not happen, the targets of the war turned to the east. Russia wants to seize the entire Donbas, but so far little progress has been made in the Donetsk region, focusing more on the front line in Luhansk. The analyst points out that the Russians have occupied certain parts of a city or village for even a few days or weeks, saying that “this shows that the Russians have shown very poor results.”
Cross the river
“The current assessment of the Institute for War Studies is that if the Russians capture Severodonetsky and take full control of the Luhansk region, Russia’s campaign will culminate, and the Russians will have to take a break to regroup and consolidate their control,” he said. At this point (Russian President Vladimir Putin) Putin may try a ceasefire.
But it is not clear to me that the Russians will be able to capture Luhansk. Severodonetsk is an important position in the hands of Ukrainians in Luhansk, Siverski is located on the left bank of the Donetsk River. If the Russians capture it, they will have to cross the river to enter the city of Lisichansk. The Ukrainians have prepared defensive positions in this city. “ – emphasizes the analyst.
According to Barros, Lisichansk is located high up, so it will be geographically difficult for the Russians to attack the area. It was not easy for the Russians to cross the river or fight in the city during the war.
When Ukrainian forces are advancing
“You say the Russian army is weak. But they are moving forward, concentrating on their positions. Do you see evidence that they can keep the territories they capture? ” In response to this question, the analyst said that the main issue here is the ability of the Ukrainians to launch counter-attacks to liberate the territories occupied by the Russians.
“We have not seen Ukraine be able to take back the territory that Russia has seriously defended. The Ukrainians have recaptured the area around Kyiv and Kharkov in the north because the Russians have retreated. “In many cases, there are reports that Ukrainian forces have liberated these territories, but the reason is simply the withdrawal of the Russians and the entry of Ukrainians.” – Barros said.
According to him, fierce fighting is currently taking place in some places where the Russians want to strengthen, for example, in Kharkov in the north, near Mikolayev and Kherson in the south. In those places, the Ukrainians entered some places, the Russians retaliated and took back the territories.
“In other words, Ukraine’s victories are not great, and Russia’s defense is very good.” The analyst notes that it is much easier for the Russians to control the occupation than to occupy it. For Ukrainians, it is easier to defend the territory from Russian attacks than to liberate the territory already occupied by Russia. The strengthening of Russian positions in the south of the country indicates the intention to keep those territories under control for a long time.
Western weapon
The analyst says he does not want to say that the issue has been resolved, but says that in order to retake those territories, the Ukrainians must show new combat capability, which is not visible.
Barros says weapons from Western governments will be crucial in the coming weeks. According to him, the Russians have significantly changed the front line in some places, and better, longer-range weapons are needed for the Ukrainians to hit their logistics caravans and ammunition depots.
“Therefore, I consider the military assistance of the West to be a decisive factor in ensuring that Putin does not provide a stalemate or a situation that will strengthen what he has achieved.” – Barros notes.
Russia, which attacked Ukraine on February 24, has faced harsh Western sanctions.