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Why Ukraine and Russia are preparing for a long war

“The issue of international attention will also affect its course. Rising oil and gas prices and inflation are already focusing on domestic problems “

Russian forces are about to capture the last stronghold of resistance in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, and heavy fighting is taking place in the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Analysts say Russia’s progress in the war has resulted in heavy losses, while British intelligence predicts that Moscow’s pace will slow in a few months.

Kyiv, meanwhile, wants more weapons from the West, but also faster delivery. The intensification of fighting in the Donbas has led to heavy losses for Ukrainian forces, and ammunition stocks have dwindled.

It is difficult to predict

But the war does not seem to end soon. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on June 20 that the war could last for years. President of Russia Vladimir Putin He said Moscow would not give up its plan to seize the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.

Fellow of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology Marqarita Konayev In an interview with RFE / RL’s Reid Stends, he said it was difficult to assess whether we were in the middle of the war, at the beginning of the middle, or nearing the end of the middle. He says the end of the war will be a political decision. “Obviously, military factors will also play an important role, but at the end of the day, it will be a political commitment, a political compromise in one way or another, which depends on Putin and Ukraine.” – he adds.

As for the fighting in the Donbas, the expert stressed that daily operations are concentrated in Luhansk, so Russia is making progress: “It seems that Russia has improved some logistics elements and changed its leadership, but it does not seem to have made significant changes in command and control.”

Towards the end of autumn, winter…

Konayev says the fighting will continue all summer because the weather allows it.

“It may slow down towards the end of autumn and probably towards winter,” he said. At least for now, the West has pledged to supply Ukraine. Heavy weapons are on the way or reaching, and Ukraine does not seem inclined to stop fighting. Russia is also advancing, with an advantage in artillery and ammunition. In view of all this, I do not expect the war to end soon. “ The analyst said that Russia could lose the territory it seized today next week, and that the pace of the war was very different from the beginning of the war.

“The issue of international attention will also affect its course. Rising oil and gas prices and inflation are already focusing on domestic problems. All these changes will affect the trajectory of the war. This is both an ongoing war between the two countries and an international war. ” – Konayev says.

Can Kherson be taken back

But can Ukraine reclaim its territory in Kherson, where it has launched a counterattack? Konayev says Russia is unable to conduct amphibious operations, re-equip and deploy its forces through the Black Sea, as Ukraine makes good use of weapons it receives from the West.

“But I am hesitant to say that the Ukrainians can recapture Kherson. Russia, on the other hand, has no complete control over any territory in the south. There is also the question of how Russia will move forward, they are destroying settlements and cities in such a way that they are left without a population. Although not in Kherson, we have seen it in Mariupol and Severodonets.

Therefore, if the Ukrainian forces try to take back Kherson, the battle may intensify, because any attack on a city is extremely violent and costs a lot of money. “It would be a serious matter for Ukraine to try to take back the city that Russia wants to keep.” – Konayev says.

Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 and faced tough Western sanctions.

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