“There is “Russia’s finger” in the tension” |
“Baku tries to negotiate not only with Moscow, but more with the West”
On the 4th of July European Union Council President Charles Michelin President With Ilham Aliyev telephone conversation and Joseph Biden, the American colleague of the head of the country letterHe again brought up the questions raised by the geopolitical situation in the region.
Charles Michel Europe Union Armenia and Azerbaijan He said that he will continue his efforts towards the normalization of relations between the two countries, the signing of a peace agreement, the delimitation of borders and the opening of transport and communication lines.
At the same time, Ilham Aliyev also wrote in his letter to Biden that USAof Armenia-Azerbaijan believes that it can play an important role in normalizing relations, opening communications, and creating interpersonal contacts.
“With Armenia based on the five principles presented by us Azerbaijan to the process of preparing a peace agreement between USAWe are of the opinion that he can make a valuable contribution,” said Aliyev.
Both the letter and the phone call emphasize the signing of the peace treaty.
“Inspiration Underline messages in Aliyev’s letter to Biden…”
Political commentator Sahin Jafarli told Meydan TV that Charles Michelin Armenia and Azerbaijan in the last meeting with the heads of state, an agreement was reached to start the preparation of the peace agreement. After that, the leaders of both countries gave instructions to the foreign ministers on the preparation of the agreement:
“But after that, at least there was uncertainty, that is, the parties made mutual accusations.”
According to Sahin Jafarli, Charles Michel’s call shows that Europe The union is worried about the situation and wants to solve the problems by bringing its mediation to the fore:
“In my opinion, although there are differences in the details, the positions of Brussels and Baku in signing the peace agreement coincide. But in general, both parties are interested in signing the document. Also, the Azerbaijani government is not interested in the process remaining completely under the hegemony of Russia and wants the West to intervene to some extent.”
“We have observed before, with the West in the region Russia when there is competition between them, the possibilities of maneuver for the Azerbaijani authorities expand. In this regard Baku It is interested in involving the West in the process. This is what the underlying messages in Ilham Aliyev’s letter to Biden consist of,” Jafarli said.
According to Shahin Jafarli’s observation, after the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the region, tensions and uncertainties have arisen again:
“It’s about Russia is not interested in signing a peace treaty. Moscow separates the Karabakh problem by opening the borders and restoring economic relations between the two countries. The Kremlin says that they are interested in defining borders, opening communications, and economic relations. But it sends a real message that we should not touch the Karabakh issue.”
“That is, peacekeepers ensure stability in the region. Because if a peace treaty is signed and all problems are resolved in the document, then it will not make sense for the peacekeeping contingent to stay in the region. Thus, Russia When the 5 years are over military the contingent will have to be removed from the region. This will significantly weaken Moscow’s position in the region,” he said political the commentator said.
Sahin Jafarli says that one of the main points of reference in ensuring Russia’s interests in the region is the peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, as well as in Armenia. military bases are:
“Azerbaijan and Armeniaas well as Armenia and Turkey after all the problems between them are put an end to, not only the peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, but even in the near future, Russia in Armenia military availability of basesflour the issue of necessity will also come up. It is for these reasons that Russia is not interested in signing a peace treaty. Therefore, I am sure that Russia has a “finger” in the current tensions.
“Pashinya’s situation is not pleasant at all”
Deputy Unit Ahmadov believes that Baku He expresses his long-standing readiness to sign a peace treaty with Yerevan:
“Many times Ilham Aliyev He voiced his proposals on this issue on various platforms, i.e. he made a proposal consisting of 5 points. Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan and shortly after the Brussels meeting, he made different statements. Apparently, there is pressure from Russia on Armenia.”
Unit According to Ahmadov, the European Union and USA is interested in signing a peace treaty. They want the border recognition, demarcation and delimitation process to go. But for now, there is an obstacle to these wishes of the parties.”
Deputy According to him, the signing of the peace agreement was generally agreed upon at the meeting of the heads of state in Brussels, it just takes time:
“Currently, a situation has arisen in which Pashinyan’s situation is not pleasant at all. It is pressed by pro-Russian forces from the inside, and Moscow from the outside. But in all cases, in the end, a peace agreement will be signed.”
“Peace is important for the West”
Political scientist Rauf Mirgadirov is of the opinion that the conditions under which the peace treaty is signed are of no importance for the Western countries.
Mirgadirov says that peace is important for the West. But with the current reality, the West is not only a supporter of the peace treaty, but also wants the narrowing of Russia’s sphere of influence in the region:
“In this regard, the goal of the West in the peace agreement is to remove the region from Russia’s sphere of influence and turn it into one of the distribution hubs for the transit of energy carriers to Europe. On July 4, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan said that he was ready to sell energy carriers to the West, and Turkey “It is not an ordinary event,” Rauf Mirgadirov said.
According to him, Russia can take new steps regarding the region:
“Now the question arises: what steps can Russia take to ensure military-political to further strengthen its representation, reduce the opportunities of the West to zero? For example, Russia Peacock It is expected to establish its own military base in Armenia at a distance of 1 kilometer from its direction. In fact, this issue was agreed upon during Pashinyan’s last visit to Moscow. We are talking about making additions to Protocol No. 2 on the placement of Russian military bases in Armenia. In other words, the number of deployment locations of Russian military bases has increased. Near that area general Polad Hashimov perished was”.
“Imagine, from there To Azerbaijan fire is opened and if answered, it will be considered as an attack on the Russian military. What I have listed reinforces the possibility that Russia demands loyalty from both sides. Russia has a lot of freedom of choice in implementing this in Armenia. Unlike Baku, Yerevan’s military-political and economic dependence on Moscow is sufficient,” said the commentator.
According to Mirgadirov, at present To Azerbaijan It is not profitable to implement a policy loyal to Russia. Because the geopolitical landscape of the future is still unknown, and so is the reason Ukraine how the war ends:
“Therefore, Baku is trying to negotiate not only with Moscow, but more with the West. He is exploring the possibilities of a peace agreement in this direction, and this is a logical policy.
Reminder
2020in September Azerbaijan and Armenia There was a conflict between the armed forces.
More than 6,000 soldiers from both sides in the conflict, which lasted 44 days and was called the Second Karabakh War perished has been
Azerbaijan regained control over a part of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
That year 10 According to the November statement (signed between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia), the hostilities have stopped.
After that, in the corridor of Lachin and in Karabakh Russian peacekeepers placed.
Before the second Karabakh war, until the cease-fire agreement in 1994 Azerbaijan The Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 adjacent districts were occupied.
The conflict in Armenia since the USSR To Azerbaijan It started with territorial claims.