Ukraine began to attack in the south
The analyst says that the explosions in Crimea are the beginning of a long-awaited attack Ukraine is a rumor spread by
of Ukraine in the occupied Crimean peninsula Russia military after several explosions at the airfield Kyiv officials told Western media that these explosions are a new phase in the six-month-old war, the beginning of a long-awaited counteroffensive in the south of the country.
Officials spoke anonymously about the attack on August 9. Ukraine they said that their forces had a direct role in the explosions. Kyiv although it has not publicly claimed responsibility for the attack, it has shown modesty regarding the 2014 bombings in annexed Crimea.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and the officials military urged not to talk to journalists about tactics, information said that an investigation will be conducted on the leak.
These explosions of Ukraine southern territories, including the port city of Kherson, could be a sign of an impending campaign to retake. Azad Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Reid Standish military writes that analysts and Western intelligence agencies also predict such an attack. But for now, Ukraine There are reports that the Russian forces remain in their positions, and that Russia is under continuous artillery fire.
USAA leading researcher at the RAND think tank, a former senior analyst at the Pentagon Dara Massicot He told RFE/RL that what was said about the explosions in Crimea being the beginning of a long-awaited attack is a rumor spread by Ukraine. He recalls that there have been rumors of a counterattack for weeks.
“I think there is a psychological aspect to what is happening in Crimea. of Russia Ministry of Defence they kept quiet about it and did not disclose the details. I think they’re still figuring out how to interpret it… They haven’t nailed down a story yet.” said the analyst Russia he says that he has been following his forces since the beginning of the summer, that they are very weak in Kherson.
“But since then, they have gathered a lot of forces there, they have doubled them by attracting them from other parts of Donbass… Russia units suffered uneven, but significant losses. They are rapidly filling them with different groups that are not well trained. Although the number game is gone now, there is also a question of quality in what the Russians are doing.– says Massicot, but also a lot about the situation of the Ukrainian units information emphasizes that it is not.
Analyst of Russia of Ukraine points to the possibility of a fake referendum in early September, noting that it is moving towards annexation of some parts of the country: “This is the strategy of the Russian side. They have done this before in Crimea, they just hope to shock everyone by annexing the territory and create fear about continuing support to Ukraine.
Kyiv and he tries to hinder the process, so he focuses on the city of Kherson. According to the analyst, the rest of the Kherson region village places, so the Ukrainians are trying to regain control of the city.
What can Russia achieve by annexation? Massicot reminds that although the annexation of Crimea is considered illegal, the peninsula is viewed as de facto Russia’s.
“Russia’s strategy is such that if they declare this territory as Russia, they will change the dynamics, people will approach the question of supporting the attack on that territory with restraint. If you look at the annexation of Crimea in 2014, you will understand why they think so. “Ukraine is fighting against it at all costs, trying not to be recognized.” – says the analyst.
Is the counterattack real?
As for Ukraine attacking and reclaiming territory in the south and southeast in the current situation, Massicot says that the Ukrainians can create a lot of problems for Russia. A massive artillery duel on the open road may not be in Ukraine’s favor, but the Russians are vulnerable when they move or carry weapons. In general, he thinks that none of the parties have the strength left for a massive attack.
The analyst does not rule out the possibility of a stalemate in the war. “Ukrainians are striking real blows to Russia with new weapons, the situation is constantly changing. But I expect all of that to subside by this summer and fall.” – says Massicot.