Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in serious losses for the Kremlin. There is talk of the destruction of tens of thousands of living forces until this stage of the war. of Ukraine It is expected that Russia will be dealt heavy blows with the support of arms from the West. USASecretary of State Blinken in a statement released “in this war of Ukraine there is no option to lose,” he said. This situation, of course, disturbs the balance of the regional policy in which Russia is at the center. Remaining here in a constant sensitivity Iran-Armenia, Iran–Turkey, Turkey–Armenia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Armenia–Russia, Azerbaijan–Iran, Azerbaijan–Russia Will their relationship be reshaped? So, which country will be the main link of this system of relations of special complexity? Who are ambitious? What countries are behind whom?
What will Yerevan do without the Kremlin?
Iran-Armenia, Iran-Russia, the Russian-Armenian combination has interesting counter-relationships. Iran supports Armenia also because Turkey has a special affinity with Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, and Armenia needs friends who balance Turkey’s perceived threat. It is true that they are trying to create this balance with Russia, but Tehran, unlike Moscow, does not interfere in the internal affairs of Yerevan, rather it wants it to remain an independent state and supports it. Because the fact that Armenia is under the influence of Russia does not meet the interests of Iran. Iran approaches this issue both from the point of view of the control interest in the South Caucasus, as well as from the historical point of view political sees the integration of the “Turkish strip” concept as a risk. For example, with Nakhchivan Azerbaijan does not want the communication corridor connecting its other regions to be opened even under the control of Russia. This corridor Turkey It looks like a direct road between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan national is a blow to their interests. Tehran, which is worried about the multi-million number of Azerbaijani Turks inside the country, although it could not openly support Armenia in the second Karabakh war, it is seriously worried that Armenia may go to some territory exchange with Azerbaijan at this stage and thinks that Azerbaijan the Armenian-Iranian border passing through the south may disappear. That is why Tehran emphasizes the issue of “inviolability of borders” at every opportunity. Russia wants the region as a whole, for which the only problematic region in the Caucasus is Georgia. They have armed forces in Armenia and Azerbaijan and think that they have found a way, these two military will create the possibility of constant communication between the contingent. Although Russia is worried about the loss of influence and power in Ukraine and the world, it thinks that it will be able to keep the South Caucasus under its control for some time. Therefore, he is not worried about the relations between Yerevan and Tehran. Because for the Kremlin, in this combination, Khankendi is such a reference point that if Yerevan consults not only with Tehran, but also with Washington, it is still forced to listen to Moscow. But Iravan, which feels that Russia is getting weaker and weaker in all its parameters, is forced to look for a support nearby, and this is undoubtedly Tehran.
Azerbaijan-Russia, Russia-Turkey, Azerbaijan-Turkey
Azerbaijan is connected to Russia from two places. One of them is the Khankendi node. The Kremlin To Azerbaijan by deploying its armed forces again created a situation where To Azerbaijan had the opportunity to directly influence. That’s right, signed documents Azerbaijan confirmed the territorial integrity repeatedly, but still formally. But it created another and deeper problem. The point is that Azerbaijan has not been able to restore its sovereignty in a part of its territories, and if there were once unrecognized illegal armed groups in these territories, now there are official armed forces of Russia that have entered the region under Azerbaijan’s signature. Moreover, these armed forces are not loyal to the agreement signed by their countries. In addition, the agreement signed with them has not been officially recognized by any international organization or influential states. Or their presence in Azerbaijan is not based on some officially defined mandate. Thus, there is an army of Russia in Azerbaijan, and this army does not ask anyone what to do. As in many regions, Turkey and Russia wanted to define a contact line for themselves in Karabakh. To be more precise, Turkey wanted it, but it didn’t work. A single image from the joint headquarters created in the name of peacekeeping and news so the Russian and Turkish officers throw dice and play board games in the office. In other words, Turkey could not balance the Russian soldiers, whose official number is 1961, but the actual number is many times more than that. Moreover, during the past two years, he continued to work in the joint headquarters, which did not react to dozens of incidents and losses on the contact line and borders. Azerbaijan with Turkey nationalcultural and in many cases political is forced to follow a common path. But there is a point here that Azerbaijan sees Turkey not as a force that will tear it away from the Kremlin, but as a force that will protect it. In other words, in Baku, they think that they should completely leave the orbit of the Kremlin political not in line, but the Kremlin is also sometimes very strict. In this case, a little branching is needed. This is, of course, Turkey. Of course, Turkey and Russia also understand this well. But both countries know that if they do not agree to this little game, Azerbaijan can turn to the West. After all, all economic relations are with the West, and protecting wealth is very important. Therefore, both Tehran and Ankara tolerate this reality.
Iran-Russia, Turkey-Russia, Iran-Turkey
Iran views both Russia and current Turkey as anti-Western partners. Tehran knows very well that the Kremlin is expanding the expansion of the sect in Azerbaijan and Georgia, where Azerbaijanis live in those countries national supports and uses against their ideologies. But this also works for Tehran, so it easily uses itself. Turkey’s famous “Halkbank”Reza Since the events of Zarrab, it is known that he is one of the supporters of Iran. No matter how much they clash on regional issues, Turkey has supported Iran the most in breaking the sanctions imposed by the West on Iran, and is still doing so. USAin this process court is in research. In all the regions where Russia collides with Turkey, the most common interest of both countries is to alienate the West. Therefore, the main goal of Russia, Turkey and Iran, which were the leaders of the format called 3+3 and which could not be established, is to close the region to the West together with 3 other countries of the South Caucasus.
China is coming
Yes, in the last month, the Tehran summit, the telephonic diplomacy of the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry covering the whole region, followed by the talks between the leaders of Iran and Armenia, and the Iran-China talks give us reasons to think about a new stage. It seems that Russia can no longer lead this anti-Western coalition. The Tehran summit also revealed this clearly. Because Iran gave all the open messages expected from Russia. Iran is not alone in this matter. He has a serious ally outside this coalition – the People’s Republic of China. 400 signed between Beijing and Tehran about a year and six months ago billion A dollar deal could change the fate of the region and the world. In the region, Tehran is the representative of this agreement and the center of the new policy. Thus, serious work is already underway on a new, Chinese-scripted and Tehran-centered anti-Western coalition. But there are no serious predictions that this process will be successful.