What will be the consequences of imposing a limit on the price of Russian oil? |
Because of the war he started against Ukraine Russia faced with a number of restrictions that have not been applied against any country to date. Sanctions on the mining industry, finance, village agriculture, metallurgy, information from technology sectors to oil-gas covers a wide spectrum. The basic purpose of these restrictions Russia to undermine the economy and reduce the income of the country’s energy carriers, including oil sales. According to expectations, if these come true, Russia’s ability to continue the war will be limited, which will prompt it to end its policy of aggression. Still Russia of Ukraine Although they have not changed their plans for the invasion, the Sankyas are doing their job.
Thus, the daily volume of Russian oil exports in July 115 thousand the barrel is down. USABig Britain, European Unionthe supply of oil and oil products to Japan and South Korea is almost daily since the beginning of the war 2.2 million barrel decreased. Russia although it directs 2/3 of it to India, China, Turkey and other countries, it has to sell its oil at a big discount in those markets. Thus, in July, the sale price of “Urals” brand oil will be reduced by 34 USA dollars. At the same time, against the background of the decrease in oil prices in the world market report “Urals” in 9 USA depreciating the dollar 78 fell to US dollars. As a result, the country’s income from oil exports in July compared to the previous month was 2 billion 19 by decreasing US dollar billion It was US dollars.
After the embargo of the EU countries on the import of oil and oil products from Russia came into effect (December 5 and February 5), this country’s oil-gas revenues in 2023 40 % may decrease. At the same time already early next year oil production 20 % is expected to decrease. But the US and its Western allies are not going to stop there. Washington believes that the embargo can further increase the price of Russian oil. In this case, Moscow will be able to earn more from the sale of oil to other countries, including China and India. Therefore, setting the upper price limit for Russian oil offer is done. Already G7 countries (USA, Great BritainGermany, Italy, Canada, France and Japan) finance ministers made a decision on this. At a price above that limit, shipping of Russian oil by sea and insurance of the companies that carry it out will be prohibited. Russia’s reaction to such a decision was, as expected, harsh. Thus, Russia has declared that it will not supply oil to any country outside the market conditions.
It seems that an uncertain situation may develop in the oil market at the beginning of next year. So, until then, Russia Europe it will have to reduce production if it cannot direct the intended volumes to Asia. On the other hand, even if it can do this, it is still not insured against the reduction of production. So, in order not to become the target of sanctions, Asian countries may decide to buy Russian oil at the price set by the West. In this case, Russia will stop supplying those countries. In both cases, due to the creation of a deficit, the price of “black gold” may increase sharply. According to the forecast of “JP Morgan Chase”, if Russia significantly reduces oil production in response to Western sanctions, that raw material 380 It can become expensive up to USD. The West cannot expect that the situation will develop in this way. But it seems that the threat posed by Russia to the world order is more important than the financial losses of the EU. In the face of this threat, the EU 300 billion(so much investment will be invested in the transition to green energy) is ready to pass. Nevertheless, it can be said with certainty that the next six months will be a serious testing period for the current Russian policy of the West.
It seems that an uncertain situation may develop in the oil market at the beginning of next year. So, until then, Russia Europe it will have to reduce production if it cannot direct the intended volumes to Asia. On the other hand, even if it can do this, it is still not insured against the reduction of production. So, in order not to become the target of sanctions, Asian countries may decide to buy Russian oil at the price set by the West. In this case, Russia will stop supplying those countries. In both cases, due to the creation of a deficit, the price of “black gold” may increase sharply. According to the forecast of “JP Morgan Chase”, if Russia significantly reduces oil production in response to Western sanctions, that raw material 380 It can become expensive up to USD. The West cannot expect that the situation will develop in this way. But it seems that the threat posed by Russia to the world order is more important than the financial losses of the EU. In the face of this threat, the EU 300 billion(so much investment will be invested in the transition to green energy) is ready to pass. Nevertheless, it can be said with certainty that the next six months will be a serious testing period for the current Russian policy of the West.