By 2040, the energy transition, which implies the rapid development of green energy, will deprive the oil-producing states of $13 trillion, according to Carbon Tracker, an independent British financial think tank,
The fight against climate change and the accompanying decarbonization of the energy sector will lead to a decline in oil and gas demand and a drop in price of fossil fuels. Moreover, the decline in prices will be more significant than current forecasts.
Fourty countries, whose revenues are directly dependent on hydrocarbons, will account for most of the financial losses ($9 trillion). Seven states could lose 40% of their national revenues. Nigeria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and ten more countries could be deprived of 20 to 40% of their income. Revenues of Russia, Mexico, and Iran may fall by 10-20%. Due to their diversified economies, Norway and Malaysia are less vulnerable, but their incomes may decrease by 5-10%.
A number of the world’s largest oil and gas producers (US, UK, the Netherlands, China, India, and Brazil), which were not included in the main list of 40 states, will also lose a significant share of their income. However, their economies depend on fossil hydrocarbons to a much lesser extent.
By 2030, the European Union will reduce imports of fossil fuels by more than 25%. By that time, the share of renewables in the EU energy consumption is expected to reach 40%.