Wars in Ukraine ‘will still take a long time’
Russia It maintains such a distance when changing the position of the forces, does not engage in hand-to-hand combat or street fighting. Spencer says they will focus on the “massacre” in Mariupol for several weeks
Ukraine of forces Kyiv and There are reports that Russia has recaptured some of the occupied territories near the cities of Chernigov. Moscow has previously said it would reduce military activity around the two cities. Meanwhile, the United States and Ukraine officials say that, Moscow is changing the position of its forces, focusing on the eastern Donbas region.
Russia Presidents Vladimir PutinOn March 31, it signed an order to recruit 134,500 new conscripts to the army. RFE / RL correspondent Reid Stendish is one of the recruits Russia writes that it could mean new forces in the war. But Moscow had said earlier that, Only professional servicemen are sent to war in Ukraine. The Defense Ministry later acknowledged that some conscripts were also involved in the operation.
RFE / RL with John Spencer, a retired U.S. Army major and chairman of the Urban War Studies Division at the Madison Policy Forum. snowassessed the current situation in the war.
Plan D
Spencer says that, Russia’s withdrawal from some territories and its announcement that the first phase of the war is over should be seen as a failure to achieve what Moscow wants. After all, Putin’s goal is to quickly seize Kiev, President Volodymyr Zelenskiwas to overthrow and appoint a new government instead.
“It didn’t work out. Plan B was an isolation of Kiev, and it didn’t work out. Plan C was to seize the territory for a period of time, but it was not taken. What we see now is Plan D, that is, they are sending a message that, There has never been such a goal, we are directing our forces to the Donbas Ukraine should be considered a success of the people in the defense of Kiev “ – says the former serviceman.
Spencer says it could take weeks for forces to move east. “Also, these forces have been fighting hard for a month, and the losses are huge. There is depression, the equipment is bad, they are frozen. Yes, it is possible, the war is not over, but it will take weeks for it to return to normal. ” – He is good.
Chechnya or the Syrian scenario?
Can Moscow implement the Chechen or Syrian scenario in Ukraine and destroy the cities?
According to Spencer, Moscow does not always do what it says and Targets are also changing in Ukraine. Target the first day Kyiv If so, now the target goes east. According to him, the aim of the shelling of certain cities is to mobilize Ukrainian forces, while Russia is changing the position of its forces or withdrawing from some places:
“Ukrainian forces are currently unable to change their position. All cities are under threat and it is normal to bomb during retreat. This is normal in war. Of course, Russia is committing a war crime, and I think the artillery is being used to support Russia’s new goal. “
Fights will take a lot…
When Russia changes the position of its forces, it maintains such a distance and does not engage in hand-to-hand combat or street fighting. Spencer says they will focus on the “massacre” in Mariupol for several weeks.
“You can’t bomb cities to surrender. You can’t bomb to besiege soldiers who are under siege… Hand-to-hand fighting is going on in Mariupol and It can take weeks. “ – Spencer says.
Will wars and negotiations negotiate the fate of the war? Spencer says all wars are political. That is war political ends with a solution, one of the parties snownot by destroying the shi side.
“If you look at the red dots on the map, you see a lot of dots. Many Russian forces are besieging the city. There are attacks on Russian forces, casualties, and a ceasefire political If not resolved, it will continue. Honestly, I do not see it in the near future… That is, there will be many more battles. “ – Spencer emphasizes.