Coup in Armenia, scenarios of Pashinyan’s assassination

Azerbaijan and Armenian leaders on April 6 Europe The agreement reached in Brussels through the President of the Council of the Union Charles Michel execution There are two major dangers associated with this:

– Russia He does not want the West to become more active in resolving the conflict, to change the status quo in the region;

– The Armenian opposition has begun to mobilize its resources to sabotage the government’s foreign policy. In this direction Russia authorities and Part of the Armenian lobby in the West supports them.

Post-war experience shows that, agreements execution It is very difficult to do, it has not been possible to soften the antagonistic approaches of the parties (10 November, 11 JanuaryNovember 26, full of trilateral statements execution not done). Being a moderator of the process Russia not only in easing tensions, but snowis interested in spreading the disease along the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow is trying to be a key mediator in all issues between the two countries, especially in the process of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. The Kremlin leadership is interested in maintaining the status quo in its own interests, keeping in hand all the important components for the start of peace in the region.

This situation does not satisfy either Armenia or Azerbaijan. The West, taking advantage of this and the favorable geopolitical situation, is trying to find common ground by bringing the parties to the conflict together. The initial proposed in Brussels formula It coincides with the five-point basic principles put forward by Azerbaijan for peace. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking from objective realities, tries to explain to the Armenian society that there are no other alternatives. These days he had celebrated that, As a result of the rejection of the West’s proposals, Azerbaijan took Farrukh Mountain and is likely to take similar steps in the future. Pashinyan understands that, occupier Russia Ukraine Demoralization in the crisis will not be able to prolong the current uncertainty. On a new level, Western international law is based on Turkey’s growing influence in the region and It offers Armenia to snatch something from Azerbaijan in connection with Karabakh without delay. Of course, we are not talking about a utopia like independence, but guarantees for the security of Armenians.

Russia’s past in Armenia with extensions political and the elite to power society in this sensitive situation snowIt seeks to undermine the process initiated by the West. Moscow is circulating their theses and snowThe next of the racing mood political is doing its best to turn it into a crisis.

Today, Russian Ambassador to Yerevan Sergei Kopirkin told 24news.am that the United States and He said France was refusing to cooperate in the Minsk Group that, Stability in different regions of the planet for the sake of the West’s own ambitions and destroys international mechanisms and platforms that serve to strengthen security. “It simply came to our notice then that, it is a pity. Unfortunately that, peace and security interests, in this case the geopolitics of the countries of the region, primarily Armenia and other ambitions victim is given “– said the ambassador.

The organization of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun (EIFD) stated that, Dismissal of the current government of Armenia and changing the person conducting the negotiations is a way out of the situation way is the first step to.

Apparently, the ambassador’s statement coincides with the main theses in the statements of the Armenian opposition. Thus, the internal in Armenia political The threat of a crisis and the non-implementation of the Brussels agreements remains relevant.

Security expert Ilham Ismayil recalls that, From the meeting in Brussels and After Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashkina said that she would sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, provocations were predicted about the possibility of various events, from the removal of Pashkina from power to an assassination attempt against her. According to him according toIt is not ruled out that opposition political forces, or even another state, are behind the statement of the Dashnaks, who have declared terrorism the main principle of action since its inception, to eliminate Pashkina:

“Such statements have been made for several days that, All political forces opposed to Pashinyan’s government are voiced by members of the media. David Shahnazaryan, the former head of the Armenian special services, stressed that the removal of the current government from power was an “all-Armenian task” and said that “the government must be overthrown by all political means.” Stressing that time is running out around Armenia to achieve this goal, Shahnazaryan said he believes that a new movement will soon emerge.

The expert reports that, In Armenia, the issue is no longer just a criticism of the government’s position, protest has passed the stage of making: “The calls have one goal: the Pashinyan government must be overthrown. The politicians are linking all their analysis to Russia, threatening the public that if a peace agreement is signed and Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is recognized, not a single Armenian will remain in Karabakh, and as a result, Russia will leave Karabakh and then Armenia. Moreover, Pashkina was ruled by the West in this matter, Europe That the Union is actively intervening in these processes and guya Ukraine At the same time, they say, they are trying to put Russia in a bad position by “opening a second front” in many regions where Russia has interests, including Karabakh. Of course, Russia does not need to be incited by Armenian politicians, because it is in their interests and He knows how it affects him and what the Armenians want to benefit from here. On the contrary, there is no doubt that Russia will manage and direct this noise. Russia, in the words of the Armenians, “a new threat, a new war, new losses, new victims.” and new capitulation ”, intimidates and threatens them. Russia’s passing does not end there, and on behalf of some Armenian political experts, the current situation is dire and Achieving the restoration of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region within Azerbaijan in order not to “completely lose Artsakh” way they say what they see “.

I. Ismayil adds that, Dashnaks appeal not only to Russia, but also to international organizations and stated that they did not consider his written commitment and signature legitimate:

“Not only Armenian politicians, but also the separatist regime in Khankendi are against Pashkina’s statements about the peace agreement. and They consider it unacceptable for the international community to demand “lowering the status bar of Karabakh.” False parliament On behalf of the leadership of the Russian Federation, they appealed to “not to give anyone a reason for the future security of the people of Artsakh.” It is clear that when they say “no one”, they mean Pashinyan in the first place. They also called on the leadership of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Ukraine They called for action, regardless of differences of opinion.

Says a security expert that, that the separatists are ready for both political and military struggle and Although they said that they would fight for Armenia and all Armenians at the same time, they are well aware that this slogan is not real. “Then Moscow may need to raise such an unrealistic slogan to pave the way for future provocations?” Moscow 6 April He did not hide his anger after the meeting in Brussels. On April 8, he taught Ararat Mirzoyan a lesson, and now he has called Pashkina to the Kremlin on the 19th. It is already clear that this meeting will not be successful. Angered by the situation in Ukraine, Tsar Nicole PashkinawayIt will not be hidden for a long time. When the first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, announced the need for a peace agreement with Azerbaijan in September 1997, he was invited to Yeltsin’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo. and forced to resign soon. Two months later, the first president of Armenia resigned, and two months later Kocharyan president It happened. Can such a fate await Nicole Pashina? If nothing is received, October 27, 1999 parliament It is not ruled out that a conspiracy such as the massacre will take place. Consider that, The terrorist organization Dashnaktsutyun has issued a statement saying that the only way out is to dismiss the government. One of the methods is to eliminate undesirable figures with terror “– the expert notes.

In his opinion, normal logic and He says the current situation will not be like that. The expert adds that, Pashinyan will not travel to Moscow empty-handed, but in the “advisory dress” of the West and When you return, you will also know how many “genes” the dress has: “There will be no abandonment of the peace agreement, it will only be exaggerated that Moscow is the architect of this work and likely that, the time distance will still remain uncertain. Karabakh policy is entering a new stage with new details. Taking into account all the options, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan will succeed in this stage as well. ”.

Turqut