Professor of History, Khaladdin Ibrahimli, who teaches at several universities in Turkey Ukraine events around, Russia The reasons for the geopolitical war between the West and He shared his views on the future of the region with Pressklub.az. We present the interview:
– Professor, Russia to Ukraine snowHis war has long crossed the country’s borders. The United States in particular NATO and The West supports Kiev, arms it, and provides financial assistance, in parallel to Russia snowimposes severe sanctions. What do the processes promise, have we entered a new era of the Cold War?
– The phrase “Cold War” is a metaphor. Now you can name what happened the “new Cold War.” But this will not change the reasons for what happened in Ukraine, the essence of the events. To put it bluntly, the United States after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia The tension between them was a little slowed down, but it did not end, and today it has entered a new – active phase. It became clear that, During the Cold War snowthe ideological contradiction between capitalism and socialism, as many claim and not intolerance. The new confrontation that began in Ukraine showed it that, The basis of this geopolitics is a confrontation arising from a dual contradiction, that is, the conflict between land and water. Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian 10It is a struggle for hegemony that has lasted for more than 0 years.
– It is interesting, it was dry during the Cold War and In which regions was the water struggle going?
– Many consider it a competition for strategic weapons and or imagined it as a race. But the main struggle was in the waters surrounding Eurasia. This includes the southern regions of Europe, the Middle East, as well as Iran, Pakistan, Korea, Vietnam. and It included the coasts of the Asia-Pacific region. According to the famous American geopolitician Nicholas Spikman, Rimland (coast strip). Because that was the idea that, In Rimland, in the south of Eurasia coast The force that controls the regions will control the World Island (Eurasia). He who controls the island of the world will control the world. The creation of Israel during the Cold War, the wars in Korea and Vietnam, and later the wars in Afghanistan, the revolution in Iran, and the policy of lasting control over Turkey were all wars for control in Rome. USA and In this confrontation of the Soviet Union, two countries – Vietnam and North Korea and Divided to the south. After the collapse of the Soviet Union NATO Russia’s position on the southern shores of Eurasia has been shaken: relations with the Middle East have weakened, and its direct land border with Iran has disappeared. and s. On the contrary, the position of the United States has significantly strengthened. Russia’s return to Syria in 2015 and its consolidation initiatives in Libya were the first steps it took to regain lost ground in the Mediterranean, known as the Central Ocean. and after that, most likely, there will be no sequel.
– But there is a Chinese factor in the middle…
– Yes, this is a serious factor, Russia together with becomes a more serious factor. Let me say it briefly that, China is also squeezed out of its southern waters. Despite all the advantages, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, India and other states are on the southern flank against the United States. Afghanistan and Pakistan, to put it mildly, is not with China against the United States. Russia has little opportunity to defend China, at least not to it according to that, access to southern waters is very limited and Asia has no allies in the Pacific. Arab states in the south, especially Egypt and Given that Israel is also on the side of the United States, in the post-Cold War period, the United States was able to significantly strengthen its position in Rimland. Now it is moving closer to Russia’s borders, going to the inland seas, to the depths of the land. Sweden and Finland NATOIf accepted, the siege will be further narrowed and the opportunities for pressure will increase.
– It turns out that, Is the war in Ukraine mainly from the White House?
– It would be wrong to think so. The war comes from the Kremlin. This is indisputable. It is Putin who made a mistake. Perhaps the White House from time to time encouraged him to take this wrong step. Perhaps Putin’s wrong step, as well as a very dangerous step, was abused and is being punished, will be punished even more in the future. Because in this war Putin Even if it invades the whole of Ukraine, it will be defeated. It is visible that, Ukraine has new historical opportunities for the West to advance into Rimland and Russia has plunged into a huge quagmire here.
– You said that “Russia was pushed to take the wrong step.” Is it possible to clarify this idea a little more?
– Of course. To my observations according toThe United States after the 2014 occupation and some western countries began to give serious support to Ukraine. His army was rebuilt and was prepared both theoretically and practically. Maybe even Ukraine army of occupied lands free was preparing to be made. It may be, PutinHe refers to this point when he says, “If we delayed a little, they would start.” But in all cases, Putin He should not have intervened in Ukraine. Ukraine’s own lands free The struggle he would begin would perhaps give Russia more diplomatic maneuver. Now, from wherever you look, he is in an unjust situation.
From the first days of the war, the numerous Russian armies were shown an unexpected resistance. and The fact that Western support began after the start of the war is the main proof that the idea is wrong. The views expressed by leaders are, of course, distracting and there are elements of propaganda.
I’m sure of it too that, From the first days, US intelligence had known that Russia would go to war with Ukraine. because 20It is not a matter of a month or two to mobilize an army of 0,000 to prepare for war and it is also impossible to keep it secret. In my opinion, the reason for the hasty withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan was due to accurate intelligence information about Russia’s preparations for war. The United States withdrew from Afghanistan and Targeted in Ukraine. Karabakh and Looking at the events in Kazakhstan, it is possible to claim that Russia has already made some preparations in the “backyard”.
– US military intervention in Ukrainepolitical The scale of support is known. I wonder why Washington attaches such importance to this country?
– Not only the United States, but also Britain, the Euro-Atlantic bloc. Ukraine the crisis could be the only crisis to scare Europe. The United States knew that, Russia’s attack Europe It will scare the countries of the Union (EU) and Hard on NATO’s feet yapwill force you to urinate. That’s what happened. Trump has created a slight rift between the EU and the Euro-Atlantic Alliance. By the way, one of the issues that deceived Putin was the fact that the EU was dividedziya was.
Ukraine is of great geopolitical importance. According to Brzezinski, this state will be an alternative to Russia in the region, the only force that can stand in front of it. This idea proved itself. Such an opportunity post-Soviet and It does not exist in any post-socialist state, not even in Poland, which has a very serious position. The West has seen Ukraine’s resistance and quadruple from him yapworked. It’s hard after that that, miss the opportunity to catch. Russia is in a difficult situation that it has not faced in history. As Putin resists, he weakens his position every day, increasing the number of Russia’s problems and worsening their situation.
– Speaking of Karabakh, how do you assess the recent events here?
– In my opinion, there is serious pressure on Pashinyan, which prevents him from choosing a specific position. He is still responsible for security in Armenia that, It is Russia. He can change the government by force at any time. He showed it in 1999 as well. Political internal that will ensure the security of the government and As there is no foreign power, Armenia due to the presence of a Russian military base in the country political leader cannot escape Moscow’s hostage She according to As soon as he returned from Moscow, he was forced to speak through the Kremlin. As the Kremlin’s influence in the Caucasus weakens, Armenia will begin to pursue a realistic policy, with no other choice. We will see this more clearly in the future.
Azerbaijan must be a little more patient. Russia will not be the previous Russia. The West is not giving up on Russia, it will weaken it to a safe level. At this time, the entire post-Soviet space will enter a new era. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova will be able to solve the problems that have accumulated over the years in a very short time. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, has a better chance; enough that, let there be sincerity in the middle. Zangazur corridor should be opened, Turkey in this small region and Both the artificial and geopolitical rift between Turkestan must be eliminated.
– This is the opinion of the Turkish media that, as if Ankara does not want to weaken Russia…
– There is such an image. Turkey does not want Russia to be strong, nor does it want the United States to be strong in the region and There are serious enough reasons for this. The United States is working to create an artificial state in southern Turkey. But Turkey does not give up supporting Ukraine’s case for a moment. Our media sometimes does not want to evaluate these two issues together. But these two factors are inseparable.
In general, Turkey’s interests are Azerbaijan’s in the post-Soviet space and 4 From the strengthening of the Central Asian state and He is in favor of the Organization of Turkish States becoming a strong organization. This is closely related to the weakening of Russia’s influence. However, this issue does not depend only on Turkey. The countries we are talking about are very dependent on Russia, and even have difficulty pursuing an independent policy in some areas and The main problem is that these countries are not ready for a serious union. Some of these states are almost jointly governed by Moscow. Even the partners identified in Moscow are sometimes divided, covering strategic areas such as education, military, security, and political governance. Public administration does not recognize or accept partners. This situation must change. In the coming years, the ropes connecting the Turkish states with the Kremlin will weaken, a little more from within, that is, from ourselves and If tried, breaking will be easier. One of the important vectors national is to restore the status of languages. This issue should not be passed on to future generations. You can start work tomorrow. As small as Azerbaijan information It is dangerous to have 340 Russian schools in the area. It is occupied from the inside and or preparation for occupation from the outside.