As expected, Ukraine The crisis laid the foundation for serious changes in the post-Soviet region. As Western total pressure on Russia grows, so does support for Ukraine and This leads to significant changes in the foreign policy priorities of the countries of the region, including Azerbaijan.
In recent months, there have been two important changes in this direction:
– Official Baku is cooperating closely with the West in the process of normalizing relations with Armenia and is interested in continuing the process in this area;
The missions of the guests who have been visiting Baku in recent days also testify to this. For example, on April 28, the United States visited Azerbaijan and Georgia and Ambassadors to Armenia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Erika Olson, Chief Negotiator for the Caucasus Negotiations (SACN) Andrew Shaffer, US Europe and The post of Eurasia Assistance Coordinator execution Greg Naarden attended a regional meeting of Mission Leaders hosted by the US Embassy in Azerbaijan.
The statement came from the US Embassy in Azerbaijan. “From the region and Colleagues from Washington gathered to exchange views. United States Azerbaijan, Georgia and As we celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia, we must strengthen our partnership and It is safer and more stable for the peoples of the South Caucasus and We emphasize our commitment to ensure a prosperous future “.
So from Washington and The messages from Brussels to Baku focus on three main areas.
– Peaceful, democratic development of the region, strengthening security;
– Diplomatic settlement of conflicts without the use of force;
– Expansion of energy cooperation and Creating new transit opportunities to Europe, increasing exports.
All 3 directions have been military in the region for many years.political It is against the interests of Russia to control it. The Kremlin is trying to use the tools of pressure to deter the countries of the region, including Azerbaijan. More on that later.
In the evening of April 28, Azerbaijan food 5-hectare production of Agrarian Industrial Park owned by Azersun Holding, the largest player in the sector and supply base burned to ashes. Tons of oil worth tens of millions of dollars and other food products turned to ashes, brzawhere the sun is scarce and This event has caused great damage to the country in the current period of rising prices. Azerbaijan has money, but the country depends on imports food which country will buy its products? Ukraine is at war, where sanctions are collapsing Russia restricted exports…
There are experts who draw a parallel between the above-mentioned geopolitical changes and this fire. There are too many overlapping points in their arguments.
Today President The messages voiced by Ilham Aliyev at the international conference held at ADA University are also clear and was targeted. What he said can be considered as a strategic choice in the current geopolitical war. Because there Ukraine There are concrete statements on the crisis and the settlement of the conflict with Armenia without Russia:
Azerbaijan in Brussels in early May and There are plans to organize a meeting of Armenian representatives;
This statement is official Baku Europe It includes the Union’s continued support for the initiative to resolve the conflict, but rather its renunciation of Russia’s fruitless post-war process. Let’s continue:
We fought in our territory. She according to nor did that matter. But, as we all know, during the 44-day war, cargo planes loaded with weapons came to Armenia from Russia several times a day;
We, like other countries, support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and we declare it openly, whiteacWe do not hide behind. Yes, we are Russia We do not deny that we have a good relationship with In any case, the principles of international law political should not be distorted due to preference;
Security expert Ilham Ismayil told Presklub.az that he assessed the fire in the context of the processes described in the region:
“Regardless of the scale, when any emergency occurs, there are two versions – is it an accident or a provocation? For both versions, operational and investigative measures are being carried out on different versions. In the end, focus on the most realistic. The causes of the fire in the Agrarian Industrial Park belonging to Azersun Holding will also be investigated in this regard. It is already known from the official data of law enforcement agencies that, An investigation has been launched. Can there be provocation? The events that have taken place around Azerbaijan for years, the conflict of interests of global powers in the geopolitical struggle, the events in Karabakh, from the north and Accusations of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy from the south, the activities of radical believers under the banner of Islam and s. Relationships have formed such an image in society that, Ordinary accidents are also considered to be the work of external forces. She according to also social There are rumors in the networks that this fire is also provocative and As we mentioned, there is nothing unusual here. What is the essence of provocations? Warning to the country, pressure, any political refrain from the course and s. To what extent are these factors that characterize terrorism relevant to us in the current situation? Russia to Ukraine snowAgainst the background of the war, a number of options can be put forward.
First, as a society, we openly support Ukraine, and as a state, we are content to send only humanitarian aid to avoid the wrath of our northern neighbor. The day before the incident, the Ukrainian ambassador to Azerbaijan went to Sumgayit to express his gratitude for the last humanitarian aid sent from Sumgayit. Can the above give grounds for provocation? As a version, operative-investigative measures should be taken in this direction. It is true that the provocations that have taken place so far have been kept secret so as not to strain international relations. It may be that, Let’s face such a situation now.
The second version for provocation Brussels meetings, EU Azerbaijan and It is possible that the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia will be moderated. Russia Jealous of Europe’s attempt to take the initiative in this matter snowwhispers. Can the Kremlin, dissatisfied with this process, respond to Azerbaijan’s position with provocation? This is no exception and should be checked as a version.
Forms of pressure can be different. For example, the Pashinyan government in Armenia snowIf the pressure is accompanied by the opposition’s demand for resignation, we may prefer terrorism and provocation, as this option is not valid in our country. At the same time we must take into account that, current international conditions and The continuation of geopolitical processes in both cold and war conditions creates a new reality and Provocations are possible on the eve of the inevitable transformation of the system of international political relations.
To be careful in this sensitive period, the Cabinet of Ministers should develop a plan of preventive measures and should strictly control. With such events, Azerbaijan from any political course and Those who oppress know that it will not be possible to dissuade them from their political position. That’s it that, The crash version is a completely possible option and The responsibility here is the Agrarian Industrial Park and It falls on the Ministry of Emergency Situations. The industrial park itself can be accused of collecting industrial waste near the warehouse where the finished products are stored, unsanitary conditions and non-compliance with fire safety instructions. Second, FHNIt is surprising that in such an enterprise, which is sensitive to fire, does not take proper preventive measures. Let `s note that, A special fire brigade may be set up in such fire-sensitive establishments and there has been such an experience before. Official statements that the insurance company will cover the damage also raise some doubts and It should also be investigated whether there is financial fraud here. “.