Five possible options in the Russia-Ukraine war

Source: Foreign Policy

Translation: Innovator

Russian-Ukrainian war what could result? Political scientist William Taubman, known as a biographer of Soviet leaders USAin the article published in “Foreign Policy” magazine, he mentions several possible scenarios: “One of the scenarios is that Russia will suffer very serious failures. It will even get to the point where Putin either he will be overthrown or he will admit defeat in the war.

But as a biographer of former Soviet leaders Nikita Khrushchev and Mikhail Gorbachev, I can assure you that Putin stronger than these communist leaders.

of the Communist Party Political His office tried to overthrow Khrushchev for the first time in 1957. But at that time he managed to surpass his competitors. The second time, in 1964, the communists succeeded in overthrowing Khrushchev.

In August 1991, a coup attempt by high-ranking party, government, military, and security officials against Mikhail Gorbachev was unsuccessful, and only that attempt led to his resignation in December.

So far, such operations have not been carried out against Putin, and it does not seem realistic that they will be carried out. Now the Communist Party in Russia Political There is no body with at least theoretical power, such as the Bureau or the Central Committee, to remove Putin from office.

Free and not to mention fair elections. Military As for coups, such events did not happen in modern Russia, including during the USSR.

As for Putin admitting defeat, his entire life has been built on the idea of ​​not doing so.

The second scenario is that Russia wins over Ukraine. Putin and that’s what he hopes for. But so far this has not happened, and if the West’s support for Kiev continues, then this scenario is unlikely to materialize.

The third scenario USAof former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger offer did and probably President of France Like Emmanuel Macron Europe It is a compromise supported by its leaders. We are talking about returning to the status quo, the situation that existed until February 24.

But can this option suit Putin? Probably not, unless he can use his massive propaganda machine to paint it as a victory. Even if Putin agreed, he was attacked mercilessly Ukraine can agree or be able to agree to it?

The fourth scenario is the continuation of the war. Unfortunately, this is a more plausible scenario, because this option suits Putin’s character. Probably, this is exactly what many Russians are waiting for.

Ukraine whether the war will continue in this way or not Russia-Georgia or Armenia-Azerbaijan It is not clear whether it will turn into a frozen conflict as in the conflict. But after all the atrocities committed in Ukraine and the seeds of hostility sown both there and in Russia, it is hard to imagine that the fighting will completely subside.

A fifth scenario could be that Putin uses nuclear weapons to avoid an obvious defeat and get out of the situation. Previously, there were few people who thought that Putin would resort to nuclear weapons. But there is also that even to the border of Ukraine 20Even after gathering nearly 0,000 troops, there were not many people who expected Putin to attack. Now, if Putin is really that cruel, who can guarantee that he will not resort to nuclear weapons?

Whether Putin will adopt this method depends on many factors. He is Russia military will it really apply the widely discussed idea of ​​”escalation for the sake of escalation” in its doctrine?

Can he be absolutely sure that the detonation of a small tactical nuclear weapon will not lead to a full-scale nuclear war?

Will Putin break the 1945 treaty banning the use of nuclear weapons? Let’s hope not.

But Putin such a step is the only way to avoid a humiliating defeat way whoever he sees, then what we never thought of can happen to us.”

In 2014 of Ukraine Russia, which has occupied the Crimean peninsula, a part of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, from February 24, 2022, will have total control over this country. military conducts operations, has captured a large part of the eastern and southern regions.