What to expect from the congressional elections
Reuters/Ipsos polls show the economy is the top concern among voters, ahead of issues such as crime, immigration, abortion and the environment
USAwill be held in November parliament it will be known who will control the Congress in the elections. President Cho Bidenin political line will depend to a great extent on the results of the elections.
Republicans are very likely to take control of the House of Representatives. Democrats are expected to maintain their advantage in the Senate. Republican control of the House of Representatives Biden and may be enough to derail bills that a Democratic government would try to push through Congress. Moreover, Congress judge may also initiate a new investigation into the administration.
Historically judge the party lost seats in the House of Representatives during the new president’s first four-year administration.
Democrat the president Barack ObamaDuring his first presidency, his party 2010He lost exactly 63 seats in the 2018 elections. Donald Trumpof the president 2 years after his election, 2018In 2008, the Republican Party lost 41 seats in the lower house. In both cases, control over the ward has changed.
This year, in the elections to be held on November 8, the Republicans need to win only 4 seats in order to obtain the majority in the 435-seat lower chamber.
The probability of them winning these seats increased thanks to the gerrymandering procedure. This practice, sometimes called “electoral geography,” involves one party manipulating constituencies on a map to increase its power. This process happens once in ten years.
Republicans have drawn maps that can give them an advantage thanks to the government agencies they have. This is especially true in Texas and Florida. Democrats were unable to pass their maps in New York state: the state court invalidated their map.
Democrats currently represented in Congress have begun to leave their seats, worried that Republicans will take control. 31 of them announced that they will retire or go to another position. This is the highest number in the history of the party since 1992.
Republicans USA It is enough for him to get only one vote to win the upper hand in the Senate. The Senate is currently split 50:50. If the 1 in between makes the difference vice president Kamala Harrisis
But strong and experienced candidates from Arizona, Georgia and Nevada can save the party from defeat. Republicans may lose in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These two states 2020He voted for Biden, not Trump.
Midterm elections often act as a referendum on the president. A series during the summer political The victories and some good news on the economic front boosted Biden’s popularity. But he still has to prove himself to American society.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted on August 29-30, less than half of the country’s population, only 38%, are satisfied with its performance. Same requestflour according to the results, 69% of Americans believe that the country is going in the wrong direction, and only 21% believe that it is going in the right direction.
Trump is not participating in these elections either. However, since he is interested in remaining as the de facto leader of the party on the eve of the 2024 presidential elections, he has gathered around him candidates who think like him.
USA Ali The law of constitutional protection of abortions cancellation also caused the Democrats to gain more support. Ali The protests that arose after this step of the court seem to have weakened the position of the Republicans in the elections.
Democrats also hope that Trump’s legal troubles will turn swing voters away from Republican candidates. We are talking about the searches conducted by the FBI at Trump’s house in Florida and 2020It is about the continuation of the investigation into his role in organizing the attack on the Congress in .
Democrats expected a rapid economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic to boost their chances in the midterm elections. But so far, this expectation has not been realized.
The unemployment rate is strong, although it has decreased sharply inflation hit the country’s economy, food and energy prices has risen. Gasoline prices Although the rate has fallen, the Fed recently announced that it still needs to take serious measures to control inflation. This can reduce the speed of economic growth.
Reuters/Ipsos polls found the economy to be the top concern among voters, ahead of issues such as crime, immigration, abortion and the environment.
Democrats say the climate and health care packages recently passed by Congress inflation will help to reduce the level. Thanks to these packages of prescription drugs prices will be more accessible, medical costs will decrease.
The White House recently announced some student loan forgiveness. Democrats hope to boost their popularity among young voters thanks to this controversial decision.