Is Putin bluffing?
Holding the referendum in a few days instead of a few months, as expected, “is not a plan, but a failure of the plan”
On September 21 Russia President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization. this is Russia forces Kharkiv is taking place against the background of removal from some areas in the province. In addition, of Ukraine appointed by the Kremlin to the occupied provinces officers they announced that referendums on the annexation of these territories will be held.
Putin today – on September 21, in his speech, he also voiced a nuclear threat, saying that Russia will use all means to protect its territory. “It’s not a bluff,” – he added to his words.
The West condemns the referendum plans. According to analysts, he will turn 70 next month Putin using these fake votes, it can claim that the territory of “Russia” is under attack.
“The crossing of the Russian border by foreign soldiers – despite the fact that the border has just been changed – is a mobilization into Putin’s hands, which he has so far avoided. Ukraine will provide a guarantee for targeting its facilities, will reduce the abstractness of nuclear threats”, – Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 20wrote on Twitter.
“Moscow hopes that this difference will make the conflict more legitimate for ordinary Russians,” – he added to his words.
From the Rand Corp think tank in Washington Dara MassicotAccording to the Kremlin, Kiev, as well of Ukraine important in battle success military He wants to scare the Western countries that have supported him.
“They hope that the annexation will undermine the international system, that nuclear threats related to “Russian territory” will lead to a ceasefire, and will reduce support for Ukraine.” – Massicot of September 20wrote in
Even before the occupation USA and Western allies were reluctant to provoke the Russian army. to Ukraine military This is why the speed of aid surprised Kyiv.
The Kremlin’s latest moves show Putin’s concern about the fate of his government if he loses the war. military analyst Rob Lee he says so.
“What poses a greater risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or Donbas and of Ukraine lose other occupied territories?” – Lee asked before Putin’s speech today.
Ukraine The counter-offensive carried out by their forces in recent weeks has angered the Russian nationalists. They criticized the Kremlin, called on Putin to declare a general mobilization, bomb Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, and even use nuclear weapons.
When Putin began the invasion on February 24, he expected to capture Kiev in a few days and establish a pro-Moscow government. Instead, he faced stiff resistance from the Ukrainians and heavy sanctions from the West.
RFE/RL’s Tod Prince writes that Ukraine’s success confused the Kremlin and they resorted to sudden measures.
Holding the referendum in a few days, not a few months, as expected “it’s not a plan, it’s the failure of a plan”, – Russian expert Tatyana StanovaR. Political analyst organization led by September 20wrote in
Massicot warns that if the annexation strategy fails to end the fighting and Western support for Ukraine, the Kremlin could “go wild,” launch missile strikes, cyberattacks, and display nuclear weapons during exercises or deployments.
Experts attribute Russia’s failure in the battle in part to a lack of manpower. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Although it says that up to 6,000 soldiers were killed, Western intelligence reports that this number is many times greater.
Until now, the Kremlin does not call the occupation a “war”, but calls it a “special operation”. Secret fighters were recruited for the war, and huge rewards were promised to them. Prisoners It is reported that forces were involved.
Human rights defenders say hundreds of soldiers have refused orders to continue fighting. Recent changes to the legislation have tightened the penalties against these cases.
Lee wrote on September 20 that if Putin announced a general mobilization, “big political risks”. Because there is “no guarantee” that this will help Russia in the war.
“Poorly trained and unmotivated Russian soldier the majority does not mean a great advantage”, – Lee wrote in his tweet.