Mobilization will not help Putin
Military expert Michael Kofman said that the mobilization may give Russia the opportunity to somehow prolong this war, but it cannot change the final result
Washington correspondent of RFE/RL Todd Prince citing experts, the Kremlin’s intention to mobilize up to 300,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine may face significant obstacles, and even if it is achieved, it cannot protect Russia from losing the occupied territories and losing the war.
The article states that the partial mobilization announced by Putin in the eighth month of the war in Ukraine Ukraine due to the successful counter-offensive of his forces on the eastern front, because the counter-offensive Russia revealed that his army has a serious manpower shortage.
USAin the CNA analytical center located in Russia the head of the research program and military expert Michael Coffman said that mobilization can give Russia the opportunity to somehow prolong this war, but it cannot change the final result.
Still USAof the Eurasia program of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies military expert Rob Lee said that mobilization could solve the manpower problem “only for a short time” and that it was a long-term solution way not.
According to him of Ukraine have more opportunities to advance.
It will be very difficult
Analysts immediately expressed doubt that Russia could mobilize, train, feed and arm a force of this magnitude.
in Europe USA former commander of army forces Mark Hertling also noted that it will be “extremely” difficult to mobilize 300,000 troops.
A military expert from the RAND Corporation think tank based in Washington Dara Massicot writes that Russia for many years he allowed his mobilization system to collapse because he always thought he would wage a large-scale land war:
“They will not be able to mobilize successfully. The system is structurally not ready for this.”
According to the report of the Institute of War Studies, Russia has “on paper” 2 million former conscripts and contract workers. But very few of them have received the necessary training.
In the United States, members of the military reserve participate in monthly small exercises and once a year in large exercises.
Kofman says how much Russia owes to Ukraine soldier there are natural limits to what you can extract.
Failed intervention
The article states that Putin when he gave the order to attack Ukraine on February 24, he assumed that the local population would welcome the Russian troops with flowers and flowers as saviors.
The reason for this was the wrong information given to the president by intelligence.
Contrary to the Kremlin’s expectations Ukraine forces resisted fiercely, and the Russian army lost a lot of manpower and military equipment in the very first days of the intervention.
According to the Pentagon’s official estimates, Russia will have 70,000-80,000 soldiers in Ukraine by August soldier lost
After that, Russia tried to bring new manpower to the front at the expense of volunteers this summer. Medium with short-term contracts to these volunteers national much higher than salary Salary offer was being
However, this campaign also failed to gather a large number of fighters, as there was little interest among the Russians to fight in Ukraine.