The Kremlin’s game of annexation and declining compromises |
“That would mean that any madman or dictator from North Korea or Pakistan or anywhere with nuclear weapons would be able to simply say, ‘Do what I want or there will be a nuclear war.'”
Russia President Vladimir Putin last month of Ukraine while announcing the annexation of four regions, they will no longer be subject to discussion. He said that Russia will use every means to defend those territories. Many take his words as a nuclear threat.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately replied that Putin until leaving power Russia none with political talks are out of the question. He also Ukraine soon NATOcalled to accept.
Putin By trying to wrest new lands from Ukraine, the view of the war is changing. That is, after that, the war will be Russia’s Ukraine not as an intervention in its territory, but as an “enemy” of Russia’s own territory NATOshould be seen as defending against
“But real life shatters these fantasies,” – USAat Seton Hall University in New Jersey Russia and Europe who teaches history Nathaniel Knight (Nathaniel Knight) says.
Putin’s nuclear threats have intensified the conflict between the West and Russia.
“Ukraine is the only correct response to these threats military by increasing aid is to help it win the war and be prepared for any eventuality. Any weakening of support for Ukraine would be wrong, and we do not see it,” – currently a researcher at the McCain Institute in Washington, a former official of the State Department David Kramer He told Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
Kyiv and the West reject Moscow’s annexation game as a gross violation of international law and do not want to take it seriously. However, analysts say that this move will only lead to dramatic results, cutting off almost all possibilities of compromise in the conflict.
human rights activist, USAHead of the Totalitarian Ideology Research Center located in Yuri Yarim-Agayev says that for Russia, “the only possible win-win scenario that could increase Putin’s power and popularity would be a blitzkrieg.”
“If Russia within a few days and without major losses Kyiv if he could overthrow his government, it would be a step towards increasing Putin’s power and popularity within Russia… However, I think that victory for Russia is practically impossible.” – he says.
When Putin attacked the territory of the sovereign state on February 24, the Russian army within a few days Ukraine he thought he would overthrow his government. But the Russian army Kyiv progress has stalled, and many analysts believe there is little or no chance of a second attempt.
“Either Putin will win and make the annexation with Ukraine acceptable to the West, or he will face a crushing defeat, which the course of events seems most likely to happen. He should have backed down earlier.” – says Knight.
Putin’s annexation trick also narrows the West’s room for maneuver and makes the idea of a compromise with Moscow more palatable. That’s why he calls himself a “realist” and a Westerner of Ukraine sovereignty sacrifice The voices of those calling for negotiations with Russia, even at the cost of giving, have mostly been silenced.
“Of course, USAThere are those who prefer any possible outcome to nuclear war. But I think everyone understands that this is a very dangerous precedent. This would mean that any madman or dictator from North Korea, Pakistan, or anywhere else with nuclear weapons would be able to simply say, ‘Do what I want or there will be a nuclear war.’ That would be intolerable.” – says Knight.
According to him, preventing such a precedent for the West could mean the complete defeat of Russia, as Germany faced in World War II. “This includes a complete change of leadership, a special kind of filtering or lustration to remove all the participants of what is happening now,” – he says.
Yarim-Agayev also voiced a similar scenario. He also talks about huge reparations and “the return and denuclearization of all other territories, including Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Moldova’s Transnistria regions.”
“Yes, Putin announced mobilization. However, this was not the mobilization he envisioned.” Kramer hinted that a huge number of Russian citizens left the country after the mobilization announcement.
Despite years of brutal repression, discontent on this scale could only make Putin focus on staying in power. It is possible that this will result in greater repressions.
“In this case, maybe mobilization military not a practical solution to problems, but simply a new level of control over society. – a sociologist who teaches at Rutgers University Sergey Yerofeev says
“[Putin] troops [Ukraynadan] he could withdraw and strengthen control and terror inside the country, and try to get rid of the people he considered dangerous. I mean not only the elite, but ordinary people, mass repressions. I think these are realistic possibilities. Putin is not backed into a corner.” – he says.
Knights says that decisive failures in Ukraine could lead to a weakening of the central authority in Russia and result in chaos.
“The collapse of the Russian state is a terrible possibility”, – he says. Knight points out that for many years Putin tried to portray himself as the only guarantor of stability in the country and was busy cutting off alternative development paths.
Yarim-Agayev says that the situation in Russia is becoming more and more “revolutionary”. However, according to him, this revolution may not become violent. That is, in this case, the “revolution” may appear in the form of changes in state structures and policies of those who come to power.