Putin’s mediation mission for Baku is over
Russia press at the end of October Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and announced that he will meet in Sochi with the invitation and participation of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Vladimir Putin. There is no confirmation or denial about this from Baku and Yerevan. The idea of a tripartite meeting was put forward at the summit of CIS heads of state held last week in Astana. But Putin With Ilham Aliyev although he had a separate meeting, he did not meet with Pashinyan. Observers explain this by the extreme cooling of relations between Moscow and Yerevan recently.
After the 44-day war, several meetings were held with the participation of Putin, and joint statements were adopted. In addition, a commission was created and its meetings were held to deal with the opening of communications and clarification of borders. But Russia 10 Despite officially becoming a mediating party with the November statement, it was not possible to make progress in resolving the conflict.
Experts consider the resulting stagnation to be natural. The day the war stopped Russia head V.Putin declared that the one-time solution of the conflict is the work of future generations. Kremlin Karabakh the status quo determined in the region must remain and none of the parties can violate it. But everything did not go as planned by the Kremlin strategists, especially the war of aggression against Ukraine created a new situation in this region.
Firstly, European Union and USA increased its efforts in resolving the conflict and 5 meetings were held in Brussels in a bilateral format. The West, unlike Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia wants to sign a peace agreement between Of course, this is quite a complicated matter, Azerbaijan and Armenia there are deep contradictions between them, and the status of Karabakh is at the top of these disputes. A statement was adopted at the conclusion of the quadrilateral meeting held in Prague on October 6-7, according to which Yerevan and Baku UN In accordance with the Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991, they agreed to recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
According to the agreement, in Brussels in the first week of November Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold the third meeting of state commissions on border delimitation, demarcation and security issues. We remind you that commissions last time on August 30 in Moscow held a meeting, and the first meeting was held on May 24 of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border Nakhchivan part of Troublesome took place in the direction of the settlement.
Another important part of the Prague agreement is that 2 months to Armenia Europe A civilian observation mission of the European Union (EU) will be sent. At the meeting of the EU Council of Ministers on October 17, the mandate of this mission was determined, which was significantly expanded without the consent of Baku, at the same time, Armenia-Azerbaijan state on the border a clause has been added that the period of stay can be extended.
According to experts, Putin’s organization of a new meeting of leaders in Russia is aimed at disrupting the mediation of the West and restoring lost positions. But it is not so convincing that these efforts of Moscow will be effective. Because the Kremlin is playing its own game in the region, as a result, the relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been spoiled enough.
With Armenia:
Pashinyan He agreed to bring EU observers to the border of Armenia, but did not agree to CSTO observers, of which his country is a member;
Head of Armenia Azerbaijan declares that it recognizes the territorial integrity of the separatist regime in Karabakh political reduces their support, which irritates both them and the Kremlin;
Pashinyan Regarding the Zangezur corridor To Azerbaijan 10 outside the November statement, that is, a bilateral agreement without Russia offer does. Because according to that document, Russian special services should control the road to Nakhchivan. Yerevan does not want this To Azerbaijan does not intend to give way in corridor status;
To resolve the conflict with Yerevan Azerbaijan, all diplomatic, political links its resources only with the West and has almost cut off communication with Moscow, etc.
With Azerbaijan:
Official Baku expects Armenia to break the “rules of the game” defined by Moscow 10 “old light” will light the implementation of the November statement. In other words, the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Karabakh will increase the pressure on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. But the Kremlin does not intend to seriously influence Armenia;
Azerbaijan wants to establish a checkpoint on the Lachin road if there is no progress on the opening of the Zangezur corridor. But most likely, Moscow does not allow this step to be realized;
Illegal armed groups in Azerbaijan Karabakh cancellation may take certain measures to do so, again, most likely, the Kremlin does not agree to this cancellation operation.
Also:
Russia Karabakh tries to bind his separatists with tighter strings. The sending of Ruben Vardanya to Khankendi, in the Russian official press, Karabakh was called “Mountainous Karabakh It is from this intention that it began to be presented as “Republic”. news gives Yesterday, the Embassy of Azerbaijan in Russia was strict with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs protest gave the note. “Using biased statements on the state TV channel and revealing political Permitting provocations has been voiced many times by the President of the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan In addition to contradicting the official position of Russia, which expresses support for territorial integrity, it also undermines the steps taken in the direction of ensuring long-term peace, stability and security in the region.the note emphasizes.
Thus, Russia’s policy in the region is already met with opposition from Azerbaijan and Armenia, both countries are tired of Moscow’s provocative and restraining role. Therefore, the leaders’ meeting in Russia, which cannot be ruled out, may suffer the same fate as the previous ones and may be the last tripartite meeting of this series. The occupying Russia, cornered in the war against Ukraine, has no potential and interest in resolving the conflict. Putin has nothing to give either Aliyev or Pashinyan. This time, the power to stop them is not as strong as before.
In this context, the President of Azerbaijan Inspiration Georgia in Aliyev’s future in Tbilisi, Azerbaijan and Armenia it is noteworthy that he brought up the issue of starting tripartite consultations between President Azerbaijan said that he is ready for it:
“The Karabakh conflict has ended and the time has come to sign a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is our intention. We have submitted our proposal consisting of 5 main principles to the Armenian side. We believe that Armenia will demonstrate political will and conclude a peace agreement based on these basic principles recognized by the international community. With this, peace will come to the South Caucasus and opportunities for cooperation will emerge. We also exchanged views on the start of Georgia-Azerbaijan-Armenia consultations. If the Armenian side also agrees to this, we are ready”.
In his speech, I. Garibashvili said that he and the President of Azerbaijan discussed the situation in the region, the meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the peace process. “I and our government will do our best to preserve peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia” – he said.
Year reaction to this statement USAin Georgia ambassador Kelly came from Degnan. He stated that Ilham Aliyev’s statement on Georgia-Azerbaijan-Armenia consultations is very positive and encouraging:
“As for Georgia’s role as a mediator, we know that after the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict a year ago, certain steps were taken and the prisoners free We remember very well the role played by Georgia in making it. This was the story of Georgia’s successful mediation in this process…”
Mediation of Georgia between Azerbaijan and Armenia USAwas the initiative of, but the mine maps mentioned by the ambassador and military after the exchange of prisoners, it was not possible to move forward, rather, Russia immediately blocked it. President Ilham Aliyev Returning to this issue is a very strong message to the Russian leadership. Official, so to speak Baku can be considered a sign that Moscow’s mediation initiative is over…
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