Terrible Tehran |

Azerbaijan Relations with Iran are experiencing a strange period. On the one hand, the Zangezur corridor Iran the construction of the so-called option part has started and the construction is still ongoing. That is, the iron over the Araz river way bridges are being built for the lines. Iron way lines bypassing the Sunik region of Armenia, and then along the river Iran passing through Azerbaijan Nakhchivan It will enter the territory of the Autonomous Republic.

But almost at the same time, Tehran’s officials at different levels, including military the command continues to play the old game. They started accusing Baku of wanting to change the borders in the region. There are very clear threats. In addition, the area where road construction is carried out, as well Turkey near the border with military trainings are held.

It is not entirely clear what Iran wants to demonstrate with this “muscle game” and threats. Some believe that Tehran, Armenia Azerbaijan and Turkey is dissatisfied with being pushed out of a regional process such as peace with Others say that this is the last visit of the Israeli defense minister to Baku and Azerbaijan He thinks that it is related to the continuous cooperation with this country. Third parties believe that Azerbaijan from occupying their territories free by doing so, he blocked the way of drug smuggling from Iran to Europe under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

It is not clear how this tension will develop. with Iran Azerbaijan What is the real reason for this complex relationship between us and how can we develop the situation?

Well-known analysts answered the Press Club’s questions.

Konstantin Tasich, Russian expert on the South Caucasus:

– Iran officials have spoken out against changing borders in the region many times before. According to Iranian experts, Tehran Armenia passing through its territory to the Black Sea ports of Georgia, as well as Russia and is afraid of losing free access to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union.

So the current situation is not new. A similar aggravation of Azerbaijan-Iran relations was observed after Azerbaijan installed a checkpoint in the autumn of 2021 on the Gorus-Gafan road passing through Azerbaijan and started collecting fares from Iranian carriers. At that time, the parties made harsh statements. Large-scale near the Iran-Azerbaijan border military conducted trainings. But in the end the situation was resolved.

In this regard, it is unlikely that the current conflicts will lead to a large-scale military escalation. Most likely, the parties will try to reach an agreement and continue their efforts for the development of bilateral relations in the fields of trade and economy, energy and transport.

Mikhail Neyzhmakov, Political and the leading analyst of the Economic Communications Agency (Moscow):

– Although these exercises have become a factor that increases anxiety in the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, the door of dialogue between the countries is not closed. Baku A long-term coldness in relations with Iran cannot be profitable for Tehran either. Therefore, despite the harsh statements of a number of Iranian politicians, the parties are taking steps to re-intensify mutual relations between the two states. For example, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces chief Within the recently held telephone conversations between Mohammad Huseyn Bagiri and the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan Zakir Hasanov, issues of cooperation related to military exercises were raised.

member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation information within the framework of the ministerial conference held in Istanbul, it is possible to mention the last talks between the assistant of the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmat Hajiyev, and the Minister of Culture of Iran, Mohammad Mehdi Ismaili. Often, the discussion of cultural relations becomes the first step towards the expansion of cooperation between countries with tense relations.

As you know, this is not the first exercise of the Iranian security forces in the region in 2021-2022, but according to many estimates, it is the largest-scale exercise to date. 2020starting from November Baku and Tehran’s relations have passed the stages of both warming and further straining. Let me repeat that Baku The long-lasting tension in relations with Iran objectively does not stop. Especially in a situation where the prospects for negotiations on the “nuclear agreement” are still unclear.

Rauf Orujov