The talks are over, Pashinyan wants a new war
Armenia It clearly violates the ongoing peace process mediated by the West and makes Azerbaijan new military prompts operations. To come to this conclusion Prime Minister After Nikol Pashinyan’s quadrilateral meeting held in Prague at the beginning of last month (October 6-7). political it is enough to pay attention to its trajectory, at the same time, to the processes taking place in the region. In the space of a month and a half, the rhetoric of peace was significantly deformed, and N. Pashinyan’s provocative statements took its place.
So here’s what happened during that time:
European Union sent 40 observers to the state border of Armenia without agreement with Azerbaijan and gave them wide powers;
The observation mission of the OSCE visited the border in the same manner and carried out monitoring;
USA Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi arrived in Yerevan and Armenia political expressed his support;
Russia President Vladimir Putin “Valday” discussion club made statements containing the postponement of the peace agreement and the strengthening of the separatist organization in Karabakh. Nicole Pashinyan He declared his support for all Putin’s proposals;
FranceIndia started selling arms to Armenia, Iran performed a transmitter function in this matter;
of Iran To Azerbaijan against military Nicole amid threats of harassment Pashinyan to Tehran trip did and Azerbaijan made calls against;
Armenia and in Khankendi Russia with the active support of peacekeepers To Azerbaijan against the majority protest the rally was held;
Russian emissary, billionaire Ruben Vardanyan came to Khankendi and Karabakh of Armenians Azerbaijan declared that it is impossible to be part of it;
At the tripartite meeting held in Sochi Azerbaijan President Russia he said “no” to all the proposals of his supervisor and the result of the meeting was over;
Nicole Pashinyan Azerbaijan military in aggression, Karabakh accused of preparing genocide against Armenians;
France Senate Azerbaijan against – Baku’s oil-gas imposing sanctions on its sale, recognizing the independence of Karabakh, etc. adopted a resolution providing for so-called demands;
Azerbaijan has declared that the stay of Armenian armed forces in Karabakh and the transportation of weapons and ammunition through the Lachin corridor are inadmissible;
Nikol Pashinyan at the Yerevan summit of CSTO Azerbaijan requirements execution declared that he did not intend to do so, that these demands were unreasonable;
Azerbaijan Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeyhun Bayramov stated that Armenia uses Lachin Corridor to send weapons to Karabakh, this step is against the previously reached agreements and Azerbaijan will take necessary steps for this;
It’s been a month and a half in Azerbaijan-Armenia on the borderas well as the weapons are not silent on the contact line in Karabakh;
And the climax!
Today, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev He said at the conference held in Baku:
“The Brussels meeting was supposed to be on December 7. But in the evening, Hikmet Hajiyev told me that he was contacted by Charles Michel’s office. They said that Pashinyan President of France He agrees to the meeting if Macron will participate. This means that there will be no meeting.”
Thus, Pashinyan violated the Brussels process. The chronology of events shows that the ground has been created for the occurrence of large-scale military clashes in the region. The main question is, why does Armenia, which lost nearly 500 soldiers (210 dead, 287 wounded) and lost strategic military heights in the battles of September 13-14, need a new military adventure? Azerbaijan strictly controls the region from the air and the ground, has a large military force and modern weapons. The Armenian army, which could not recover from the severe wounds of the 44-day war, has almost no possibility of resisting it. There is no doubt that Pashinyan cannot fall into the illusion that he will gain an advantage in the conflict he provoked Azerbaijan. Then there are other goals, other accounts.
For example, Armenia leadership is sure that Azerbaijan Europe Taking into account the presence of EU and OSCE observers, it will not strike from the conventional state border with Armenia. This time, military groups in areas controlled by Russian peacekeepers may be exposed to air and artillery fire. Later, military forces will be deployed in the corridor of Lachin and will ensure control.
It is known that in the rhetoric of the leadership of Azerbaijan, the target is shown in this direction. According to Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, the laying of 2021 mines on the contact line of Armenia, the transportation of military equipment through the Lachin corridor, and the failure to remove illegal armed groups from Karabakh will make the necessary measures inevitable. In Yerevan, they hope that even if Azerbaijan gains military advantage and new positions in this conflict, it may be drawn into an open conflict with Russia and the West.
First, Russian-Azerbaijani relations are tense, officially Baku also blames Moscow for the military activities of the separatists. The Kremlin will not be silent about these operations, and this is from the North To Azerbaijan will increase the pressure.
Second, France will act immediately, Macron’s government will support the anti-Azerbaijani resolution adopted by the Senate on November 16, and oppose Baku. politicaleconomic sanctions way will be opened. As a result, support for Armenia and the separatist organization in Khankendi will increase from the West and Russia.
Azerbaijan also predicts this perspective, in the last week President Inspiration Aliyev Europe countries’ visits may also involve consultations with allies to neutralize expected attacks.
Of course, imposing sanctions against Azerbaijan is not easy. First of all, with Azerbaijan on June 18 of this year gas it is certain that the European Commission, which signed the memorandum on the agreement, will oppose it.
Secondly, it is unreasonable for countries like Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, and Montenegro to support anti-Azerbaijani decisions.
thirdly, USA‘s position is different, held after the Sochi meeting Blinken– During Pashinyan’s talks, the State Secretary was seriously dissatisfied with his rhetoric, which resonated with Putin’s position.
Baku’s preventive preparation is determined to carry out punitive measures in Karabakh news gives There are also calls in the society for the implementation of such operations, especially for ensuring the control of the corridor of Lachin. Opposition leaders, experts, deputies regularly made such speeches in the media.
What the Armenian society wants, what is the validity period of the mandate given to Pashinyan for peace, these things are not yet clear. But if Pashinyan’s adventure will lead to a military conflict, soon it will also break out in Armenia.weather will change dramatically.
Turgut
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