Three possible scenarios in Karabakh
Azerbaijan held by civil society representatives in Lachin corridor protest The action continues for the fifth day. Official Baku Russia demands the cessation of exploitation of gold deposits in the areas under the temporary control of peacekeepers, and the creation of conditions for the monitoring of experts in the mines. Other requirements 10 of the November statement execution related to the fulfillment of obligations on items that are not included. That is, the disarmament of the illegal armed groups in Karabakh, from the corridor of Lachin military suspension of cargo transportation, Azerbaijan establishment of sovereignty in the region, opening of the Zangezur corridor.
Which party does not allow the fulfillment of these requirements? Representatives of Russia in the region Azerbaijan and the separatist regime, but at the same time, he set up a post in the corridor of Lachin protest who did action they hinder the progress of their participants.
The separatist regime in Karabakh does not accept the demands of official Baku and makes statements that a humanitarian crisis has been created in the region. In all statements Azerbaijan the leadership is accused in harsh terms. Billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, whom Russia sent to Khankend today, said that Karabakh issue Azerbaijan It’s not as simple as you think:
“I am glad that they are Artsakh (Karabakh – ed.) understand that the issue is not so simple to solve. They believe that this issue will be solved so easily, step by step, gradually, and the international community will “15-20 they will convince us that a thousand people live here, that there are only armed men, that there is no population, and that they will solve this issue. It seems to me that my coming here is difficult for them. This is due to the fact that with my arrival Artsakh (Karabakh – ed.) issue is being discussed more and more in the world, there is great interest in it.
According to Ruben Vardanyan Baku Finally, he must admit that there is only one option – the option of negotiations with Karabakh:
“Artsakh (Garbagh – ed.) will be independent and my role can be very important for negotiations. By raising the issue of ecology, they gave us the opportunity to raise the issue of our subjectivity higher. Now we have the opportunity to demand our participation as a party in the search for a solution to the issues discussed around this issue.”
Armenia political management as well To Azerbaijan makes counter statements, addresses appeals to international organizations, intermediary countries. But he does not come up with any proposals for solving the crisis. In Yerevan, they believe that they can force Azerbaijan to take a step back by forming external pressure.
But Baku is determined in its position and the number of participants in the action is increasing day by day. The necessary infrastructure and mechanisms for continuous actions have already been established in the Lachin corridor.
As for mediators, unfortunately, what USAYes European Union and neither Russia They do not comment on the legal demands of Azerbaijan, but at the same time they demand the opening of the road to Lachin.
USA State Department official Ned Price said that the closure of Lach’s corridor has serious humanitarian consequences.
“We Azerbaijan we call on the government to restore free movement through the corridor. The way forward is through negotiations. Closing the Lachin Corridor has serious humanitarian consequences and slows down the peace process. We have seen reports of power infrastructure failures. Any breakdown in energy infrastructure, especially during the winter months, could lead to a humanitarian crisis. If this is done on purpose, then targeting the civilian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is unacceptable.”
European Union also declared that he is anxiously watching what is happening around the Lachin corridor. About it Europe on Foreign Relations and Security of the Union Ali It is said in the statement of the representative’s office.
“European Union Azerbaijani authorities on November 9, 2020calls for ensuring freedom of movement and security along the corridor in accordance with the tripartite declaration of Such restrictions on freedom of movement cause serious concern and humanitarian distress for the local population. Dialogue and consultation with other relevant parties way can and should be resolved,” the statement said.
The European Union called for restraint and expressed its readiness to contribute to the above efforts.
Russia The spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, said that Moscow is worried about the closure of the Lachin corridor, and hopes that transport connections will be fully restored there in the near future. Zakharova said that the disagreement between the parties regarding the development of ore deposits led to the closure of the corridor. According to him, the peacekeeping contingent is actively working on reducing tension.
Zakharova says that 2020By signing the tripartite statement on November 9, the parties have undertaken obligations and must fulfill them unconditionally. “Creating problems in the life of the civilian population is unacceptable,” he stressed.
“In addition, we must comment on the groundless accusations and provocative actions against the Russian peacekeepers. Regardless of where they come from, we find them unacceptable and ineffective. The Russian peacekeeping contingent performs its tasks effectively and acts as a guarantor of stability in the region,” added Zakharova.
Turkey and defended the position of Azerbaijan. Minister of Foreign Affairs Born Çavuşoğlu said that the Russians have a duty to maintain peace there, but on the other hand, the illegal extraction and sale of Azerbaijan’s wealth from its own land is against international law and means the theft of Azerbaijan’s wealth:
“The Russian side should cooperate with Azerbaijan on this matter, and Armenians living in the areas where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed should not prevent these inspections. The main task here falls on the Russians, because they are also responsible for the normal functioning of the Lachin Corridor. In this matter, Azerbaijan is right both from the legal point of view and from the point of view of opposing illegal activities fairly. That is why we support Azerbaijan in this just struggle.”
Thus, the action of Azerbaijani activists demanding the fulfillment of legitimate demands of official Baku in the corridor of Lachin has created a crisis and the situation is getting serious day by day. What can happen in the coming days, military Is conflict possible?
“Turan” agency, citing its own sources, states that the situation may have several development scenarios:
1) A checkpoint of the power agencies of Azerbaijan will be installed in the Lachin corridor;
2) The illegal development of deposits will be stopped and representatives of Baku will be allowed there,
3) Armenia the party’s attempts to create an armed conflict, as was the case around the Farrukh Heights in March of this year, on the disarmament of illegal armed groups military will lead to surgery”.
“The calm behavior of the peacekeepers and the lack of a serious reaction from Moscow indicate that any and even all of these scenarios are completely real,” the analysis emphasizes.
Political scientist Farhad Mammadov told the press club that everyone is from the West USA, EU; And from the north, if Russia wants to solve the problem sincerely, when calling Baku, they should acknowledge that the territory of Eastern and Southern Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan: “Karabakh is Azerbaijan”, “Khankendi, Aghdara and Khojavend are Azerbaijan” and express this clearly. If not, he listened to the position in Baku, but it cannot be ignored. The process is over national level has been reached and all those who hesitate must make a firm decision.
The expert believes that the processes taking place on Lachin’s road are also a test for mediators. “Azerbaijan checks mediators: Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijan in the process Armenia Do they see the solution of the problem between them in a common package? Will the parties participating in the draft peace agreement presented by the US and the EU make the peace agreement process between Azerbaijan and Armenia dependent on the events in Karabakh? Because this is the internal affairs of Azerbaijan. This is a test of the mediators’ sincerity and honesty,” he said.
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