The second stage begins in Karabakh
Azerbaijani activists held on the road to Lachin protest Two weeks of the action have been completed. The problem during this time UN It has gone up to the level of the Security Council, but a solution has not yet been found. However, a number of important results already exist. Before enumerating them, it is necessary to look briefly at the positions and objectives of the parties.
Official Baku On the road to Lachin action by organizing, applied soft power to the other side. Its main purpose is to provide control over the corridor freely used by the separatist regime in Karabakh. Before that, the road was for the armed forces controlled by the separatist group military revealed the facts proving the transportation of supplies. In addition, he presented documents and names regarding the passage of terrorists from Iran to Khankendi, and the other side was unable to provide solid evidence to deny these facts.
Ensuring control of the Lachin corridor is an important step towards the disarmament of the separatist regime in Khankendi. Because civilians will be allowed to use this road, but Azerbaijan the separatists on the list of the intelligence, the persons under their control, as well as the leadership of the so-called organization will not be able to use it. Thus, the regime in Karabakh is de facto surrounded, officially Baku demanding that they surrender and leave the region.
Official Yerevan avoids directly interfering in the problem and becoming a party to it. But all the diplomatic, political has mobilized its capabilities. Pashinyan the authorities involved especially the Western partners in the process and France with UN He managed to discuss the problem in the Council of Ministers. Also President of France Emmanuel Macron Azerbaijan the president Inspiration The last call to Aliyev is related to this. Macron to open the way, his help in the normalization of relations offer did.
One of the notable points in Armenia’s position Russia is to stop the work he is doing with The official does not think that Moscow will provide any serious assistance to the opening of the road to Iravan Lach, and for this reason the Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan in Moscow refused to send to the tripartite meeting to be held. Prime Minister Pashinyanincluding himself Armenia officials publicly Russia they accuse the peacekeepers of taking a destructive position and not providing any assistance in opening the road.
Official Moscow began to play the role of a mediator from the beginning of the process, conveyed the demands of Azerbaijani activists to the so-called regime, and also placed a security post on the road. Russian officials in bilateral relations To Azerbaijan does not show any pressure, but UN He declared that it is necessary to open the road for humanitarian reasons in the discussions in the TC.
Russia is currently the only country actively working with the so-called regime in Khankendi, and their activities are undoubtedly coordinated from the Kremlin. Billionaire Ruben Vardanyan was also sent to the region for more effective execution of Moscow’s plans Baku to avoid conflict with his citizenship cancellation was done. But this does not mean that Russia has given up on Karabakh. To Azerbaijan makes concessions. Of course, the position of the Kremlin has certain elements of pressure against Armenia, but this does not mean in any case a refusal to support the separatists. At the meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that they are in favor of solving the problem step by step. In other words, first, the regulation of relations with Armenia, clarification of borders, opening of communications, and then the issue of Khankendi…
West
USA and Europe The position of the Union is that Lachin way should be opened, but in this direction, talking with Azerbaijan in the language of pressure does not meet the interests. First, according to international law, Karabakh It is the territory of Azerbaijan, Baku is fully justified that the separatist regime located in its territory military, political limit his possibilities. This factor To Azerbaijan in all statements against, including Europe He had his say in the decision of the Human Rights Court regarding the Lachin Corridor. Court only Azerbaijan on sick sent citizens to Yerevan, committed to creating conditions for the helpless people on the road to reach their places. Official Baku has repeatedly stated that there are no restrictions on the use of roads by civilians for humanitarian purposes, which is also confirmed by the International Red Cross Society.
Separatist regime
For two weeks action, unequivocally underlined the independence claims of the so-called regime. It became clear to them once again that the Karabakh of the international community Azerbaijan considers it as its territory and takes a non-serious approach to the claims of the Armenian minority to establish a state there. Even France mobilization of the individual and international capabilities of the leading member of the West did not lead to the opening of the Lachin Corridor. The double game of Russia is calculated not to solve the problem at some level, but to extend it for an indefinite period of time. This has led to a strained relationship between the local Armenians and the management of the so-called institution. Therefore, either Vardanyan or Araik Harutyunyan started a dialogue with Azerbaijan from yesterday offer they started doing. But the official Baku has declared that it will not hold any discussions with the leaders of the separatist regime. But he said that he is ready for negotiations with members of the local Armenian community.
The separatists are supported not only by the skeptical approach of the international community, but also by Baku’s diplomatic, political closes maneuvers. Today, there is actually no question of the blockade of the Armenian population, and in the early days, members of the regime, as well as Armenia the uproar created by the leadership loses importance.
Thus, the main results of the two-week action are that Azerbaijan A legal and political basis has been formed to ensure the control of the Lachin corridor and the state border. The state will stop the action in the near future on the border customs post, it is worth expecting that steps will be taken to ensure border control. The participation of Russian peacekeepers in some form is also possible here. Most likely, there is already such an agreement with Moscow. It is already known that the West also ensures Azerbaijan’s control over the Lachin road protest won’t do. In such a case, the process will move to the next stage and Baku’s demands for the disarmament of the separatist regime in Karabakh will intensify. The maneuverability of the so-called regime, which is in a state of actual siege, has already narrowed, and the demilitarization of Karabakh may begin in the coming weeks. How the problem is solved is of no fundamental importance for Armenia. It is more important to officially sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan in Yerevan and start solving problems.
Turgut
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