What is happening around and inside Karabakh? |
Armenia Recently, the media published news that the “State Minister” of Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan, will resign soon. Vardanyan himself denied these reports and said that he has no intention of leaving his post and will fight to the end.
Armenian sources said that a meeting of the “Security Council” was held on Sunday evening, where the “opposing parties” reached an agreement.
Turan news which is under the control of the separatist leadership information resources are extraordinary in Karabakh”parliament” and “the president” has released information that the elections can be held. For example, on January 14of parliament speaker” Artur Tovmasyan the president declared that he will participate in the elections if the elections take place. This statement Karabakh it can be considered as the reluctance of Armenians to give all the powers to a person sent from abroad in the person of Ruben Vardanya.
What happened in the camp of separatists is directly related to the figure of Ruben Vardanyan from the serious contradictions news gives There is no doubt that Yerevan’s position also influenced these contradictions.
So that, Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan last week, in his speech at the government meeting, he declared that Karabakh “authority” Baku should negotiate directly with Thus, Irevan clearly stated that if the Karabaghs do not accept Irevan’s position, they are responsible for the consequences.
In turn Armenia Parliament speaker Alen Simonyan made a more decisive statement. In his conversation with journalists, he categorically stated that “Stepanakert himself Baku should negotiate with” and Yerevan will not do it.
All these statements were accompanied by the publication of kompromats on the fact that the current “president” of Karabakh, Arayik Arutyunyan, sought to remove Ruben Vardanyan by “taking money from Baku”.
Meanwhile, Arayik Arutyunyan announced on January 16, “Karabakh National Head of the Security Service” dismissed Ashot Akopyanyan. He was replaced by Ararat Melkumyan, who was appointed head of the “Karabakh Security Council” just a week ago. The vacant “position” was taken by Samvel Shahramanyan.
It is interesting that all these events and displacements will ultimately lead to the background of radical-minded Vardanya or leave Karabakh altogether, with the Armenian community in Karabakh. Baku and how is it related to the rumors that the dialogue will be resumed?
Political scientist, director of the East-West Research Center Erestun Orujlu shared his thoughts on the events with the Press Club:
– I am currently following the events in the separatist camp. There are different groups out there. One of them is related to Yerevan. There is also a group that tries to maintain its position. And there is a group that wants to be above everyone else, to seize the initiative and, accordingly, to concentrate all resources, primarily administrative resources, in their hands.
It goes without saying that all this illegitimate illegal government will eventually be formed by Moscow’s plan. And I think that there is a struggle between Moscow and Yerevan regarding this issue. The latter is trying to maintain its influence in the mountainous part of Karabakh, and Moscow is trying to displace Yerevan from there. I think all this should be considered in the context of their struggle to influence the Armenian community. And here Yerevan’s resistance seems to be one hundred percent. Because the Kremlin Karabakh is not able to finance Armenians. In fact, of course, it can finance. But this is a rude intrusion, To Azerbaijan would be an act of hostility. And this, of course, would lead to new tension in bilateral relations with Baku.
That’s why Armenia there is a struggle with the leadership. Moscow is trying to take full control of the situation in Karabakh. And the group that should be removed from the middle – I mean Arayik Arutyunyan’s team – is supported by Yerevan. The accusation that Araik allegedly received money from Baku was made to distract attention. Indeed, many forces in Karabakh have a very negative attitude towards Yerevan. Accordingly, in this way, the Armenian authorities, who are trying to blacken Arutyunyan, are actually trying to raise his rating.
What will be the fate of Vardanya? I think that Moscow did not start this project just like that. Because Vardanyan is not only planned for the leadership of the separatists. No, I have said it before, and now I say it unequivocally that Moscow has visionary plans for Vardanyan. I believe that they are preparing him for the leadership of Armenia. As it happened with Kocharyan and then with Sargsyan.
I don’t know if it will be successful. Region physically Russia is under the control of the special services and the military, and maybe in the end they will be able to implement the plan regarding Vardanyan in Karabakh. But I don’t think that Yerevan will calm down after that. Because this will mean the imminent threat to Pashinyan’s power.
In principle, this Azerbaijan is a favorable situation for If Baku works very professionally in this direction, it can try to influence the internal conflict.
I think that Moscow understands, on the one hand, that if everything in Karabakh comes under Vardanya’s control, it will lead to a conflict with Yerevan, whose relations, to put it mildly, are not entirely friendly. On the other hand, it is necessary to implement its plans with the Kremlin in the whole region – this is a more serious and voluminous plan.
It seems to me that in the end some compromise will be reached. But this will be achieved not between groups within Karabakh, but rather between Yerevan and Moscow. Because people in Karabakh do not decide anything – everything is decided by the owners. If no compromise is reached and the conflict continues, Baku can only be happy about it.
Rauf Orujov
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