GLOBAL ECONOMY Factory activity contracted again in January, highlighting a fragile recovery |
LONDON/TOKYO, February 1 (Reuters) – Europe and manufacturing activity in Asia shrank again last month, underscoring the fragility of the global economic recovery, although euro zone factories may have at least broken through the hole, surveys showed on Wednesday.
Sharing the euro 20 price pressures in the country have eased and reduced demand has led to increased optimism. The bloc posted growth in the last three months of 2022, managing to avoid recession, official data showed on Tuesday.
S&P Global’s latest manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 47.8 in December, in line with preliminary readings. january rose to 48.8 in the month, still below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, rising to a five-month high.
Mateusz Urban, chief economist of Oxford Economics, said, “In general, we think that both inflation, but the worst is now over on the activism front. “Activity is not softening, it’s picking up again, so expectations are for a rebound,” he said.
Latest UpdatesMacro Issues CategoryFed expected to introduce small rate hike but maintain anti-inflation bias, article with galleryGalleryIndiacategoryS India boosts spending in final budget ahead of elections, article with gallery
See 2 more stories
Manufacturers in Germany, Europe’s largest economy inflation and they started 2023 with a slightly brighter outlook, even as demand continued to decline as supply chain issues eased.
Which is the bloc’s second largest economy in France factory activity returned to growth, although not as strongly as originally predicted.
However Britain manufacturing business january It shrank for the sixth month in a row in 2018, and the country’s economy began a difficult year in 2023 when it looked like it was going into recession.
However, reducing price pressures central bank will be welcomed by politicians. Ascendant, initially described as transient inflation became stickier than he thought and led to aggressive monetary tightening.
According to the Reuters poll, USA The Federal Reserve is set to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Separate Reuters polls, Europe The Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to add 50 basis points on Thursday.
According to official data on Wednesday, inflation in the Eurozone january fell for the third straight month, but the relief may be limited as core price inflation remains flat.
ASIAN CONDITION
In Asia, factory activity contracted in January as the boost from China’s COVID reopening had yet to take full effect.
China’s factory activity fell more slowly in January after Beijing lifted tough COVID restrictions late last year, a survey of the private sector showed.
China’s Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, falling below 50 for a sixth straight month.
The data contrasted with a better-than-expected official PMI survey released on Tuesday. But while the official PMI focuses mainly on large and state-owned Chinese businesses, Caixin’s survey includes smaller firms and coast focuses on regions.
Easing input-price pressures offered initial positive signs for Asia, with output in Japan and South Korea slowing, surveys showed.
But some analysts say there is uncertainty over whether the region can withstand the blow from slowing global demand and stubbornly high inflation.
“The worst of Asia’s recession is over, but USA and Europe “Weaknesses in the main export directions cast a shadow on the outlook,” he said.
“As the recovery from COVID-19 continues, Asian economies need a new growth engine. There is no such mechanism yet.”
PMI surveys showed that factory activity expanded in Indonesia and the Philippines in January, but fell in Malaysia and Taiwan. India’s manufacturing industry started the year on a weaker note, expanding at its slowest pace in three months.
International Monetary Fund on Tuesday USA and slightly raised its global growth forecast for 2023 on “surprisingly resilient” demand in Europe and the reopening of the Chinese economy after Beijing eased strict pandemic controls.
But the IMF said global growth would still slow to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022 and warned the world could easily slip into recession.
Reporting by Jonathan Cable and Leica Kihara; Edited by Bradley Perrett and Christina Fincher
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
2023-02-01 15:12:48
Source – reuters
Translation“24 HOURS”