Indonesia 2023 gasoline demand, imports likely to exceed 2022 records |
Feb 2 (Reuters) – In Indonesia, Asia’s biggest importer of motor fuel gasoline consumption and imports could hit records this year as the country recovers from COVID-related travel restrictions, although growth is expected to slow slightly along with its economy.
Indonesian import growth regional gasoline will tighten its market and likely boost Asian refineries’ margins for fuel. It may also accelerate plans to add methanol and ethanol to gasoline to reduce dependence on foreign supplies, a biofuels initiative that would add to the country’s already extensive biodiesel intake.
Rystad Energy consulting company said that Indonesia gasoline consumption will reach an all-time high of 670,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, from a record 635,000 barrels per day in 2022.
Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “The post-Covid recovery is the main driver behind the increase in gasoline demand.”
“We have assumed a softer growth rate due to the credible effects of a potential global recession.”
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Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said Indonesia’s gasoline imports last year surpassed pre-pandemic levels, 2010Based on data through , the historical high was 380,000 barrels. That could be 390,000-400,000 barrels per day this year, WoodMac said.
Refinitiv Oil Research estimated imports at around 15 million tonnes (345,000 bpd) in 2022, up from around 11.5 million tonnes in 2021.
“With (Indonesia’s) strong economic growth and mobility, demand is expected to remain strong,” said WoodMac research analyst Ranice Tan.
“However, growth is expected to slow due to several fuel price hikes last year (to include balloon subsidies) and potential recessionary effects.”
The Indonesian government raised subsidized fuel prices by nearly 30% in early September as it sought to curb rising costs in its budget.
Still, government subsidies, which make up about half of the retail price of gasoline, have cushioned the blow of soaring energy prices for consumers, Tan said.
This year, the government has increased the volume of subsidized gasoline for distribution.
Indonesia’s downstream oil and gas Regulator BPH Migas estimates sales of subsidized gasoline to reach 29.81 million kl (513,700 barrels per day) in 2022, the regulator’s committee member Saleh Abdurrahman said.
This year, BPH Migas allocated 32.56 million kl of subsidized gasoline for distribution.
Reporting by Mohi Narayan in New Delhi; Added by Fransiska Nangoy in Jakarta report; Edited by Florence Tan and Tom Hogue
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
2023-02-02 10:06:35
Source – reuters
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