Column: India’s economy – and emissions – #Column #Indias #economy #emissions
LITTLETON, Colo., Feb 7 (Reuters) – India will become the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2023, an investment boom, factory production, bank loans and will lead to sharp increases in consumer purchases, according to a recent survey by the Reserve Bank of India.
Climate watchers will be dismayed by such a robust outlook, as India’s power sector is on pace for record emissions in 2022 when the economy is stuck at a slower pace and will further pollute as the pace picks up.
Overall economic and industrial activity was constrained in 2022 by a mix of parts shortages for manufacturers, rising interest rates that slowed consumer demand and a record weak rupee against the dollar that made imports more expensive.
But in 2022 bank after rapid corporate deleveraging that helped improve its balance sheet, “the private sector is poised to increase capital spending as the investment cycle picks up,” according to consultancy Deloitte’s 2023 India economic forecast.
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If overall industrial activity increases as expected in 2023, then energy use and pollution from domestic production lines and smokestack plants are expected to increase as well, undermining global efforts to reign in fossil fuel pollution.
RECORD USAGE OF COAL
According to Ember think tank, India’s power sector’s carbon dioxide (CO2) and equiv gas emissions will reach record levels in 2022.
January-the number of emissions for November – the most recent monthly data available – is 7.5% higher than the same period in 2021, for a record annual electricity sector emissions total of 1,091 billion noted that the ton.
Strong, sustained electricity demand from households, retail outlets and offices – mainly for air conditioners – helped lift India’s overall electricity demand in 2022, despite a soft showing from manufacturers.
In 2022, the main source of pollution is record high use of coal and high global gas prices because of this, there was a sharp decrease in the use of natural gas.
India’s electricity production and emissions to reach record highs in 2022
During November, total electricity generation rose 8.3% year-on-year, indicating that India’s power producers successfully harnessed more new clean energy (13.3%) in 2022 than new fossil fuel power (6.7%) shows.
However, electricity generation remained largely dependent on coal, with an average of 72.7% of electricity coming from coal in 2022, according to Ember data.
Naturally gas India’s power producers are expected to continue using coal for most of their baseload power generation in 2023, despite deploying additional clean but intermittent renewable energy supplies, with markets still disrupted by Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
OUTPUT DIP
While electricity output is trending higher in 2022, key measures of India’s manufacturing activity have stalled below recent peaks as a combination of supply chain stress, rising interest rates and a deteriorating rupee slowed both production and consumption.
Indian rupee and USA dollar exchange rate
Famous in India car market – fourth largest by sales and production volume in 2021 – average production in 2022 from 2014 2018It was particularly weak, being about 25% below the average until .
2010in India since car sales and production
Other measures of India’s manufacturing activity include a series of indices published by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) for textiles, whitehungry products and finished metals sectors, pointing to a reduction in production, revealing persistent sub-normal production levels.
India’s electricity production set to hit record high in 2022, even as production stalls
However, 63% of Indian business leaders surveyed by investment bank JP Morgan are optimistic about the economy in 2023, with 94% of businesses expecting capital spending to increase or remain flat, and 84% expecting profits to increase.
Some areas of concern remain, with 44% of respondents saying supply chain pressures are worse than a year ago, and 61% saying a recession is likely in 2023, in line with expectations for the global economy.
But the overall upbeat tone of those surveyed – coupled with equally positive expectations for India in the financial community – suggests that businesses in every sector of the economy are poised for growth this year.
This means more energy use in homes, offices, farms, factories, mines, oil refineries, cement plants and logistics channels – a commensurate increase in emissions.
With the country’s energy sector already on track to reach a new record by November of last year, cumulative emissions in 2023 could easily be one billion ton can pass and India’s China and USAConsolidating its status as the third largest energy sector emitter after .
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Edited by Robert Birsel
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The opinions expressed are those of the author. These are Confidence It does not reflect the views of Reuters News, which is committed to its principles of integrity, independence and freedom from bias. Gavin Maguire
2023-02-08 07:27:23
Source – reuters
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