Russia-Ukraine war was warned 30 years ago – #RussiaUkraine #war #warned #years
On January 5, 1993, new the president selected Bill Clinton(Bill Clinton), the outgoing secretary of state, days before his inauguration Lawrence Eagleburger (Lawrence Eagleburger) wrote a 23-page memo to his successor two weeks later.
Eagleburger’s two days ago chief President George Bush (George Bush) Russia President Boris Yeltsinto Moscow to sign START II, an arms control treaty trip had done The deal, seen as a last-minute diplomatic victory for the Bush administration, marked the end of Cold War-era nuclear tensions. Many saw this document as the beginning of a new relationship between Moscow and Washington.
Warren Christopher(Warren Christopher) mentioned the hotspots and places of tension in the world, as well as the opportunities that arise along with the problems. Of course, the document did not ignore the remnants of the Soviet Union, which collapsed 13 months ago.
The threat of war in former Yugoslavia, as well as “the failure of reforms in Russia and a return to some form of authoritarian rule” were also included in the list. In addition to this, the document “Russia A warning about an armed conflict between “any of the states on its periphery” was also included.
“Ukraine if not the most likely, it is the most dangerous possibility.” – Eagleburger wrote.
Thirty years have passed since the writing of the memorandum of Russia Ukraine we are witnessing a full-scale attack on it and the largest ground war in Europe since World War II.
Memorandum last week USA National It is one of the few documents over which the Security Archive has taken the confidential status. National The Security Archive is a non-governmental organization based at George Washington University in Washington, DC. The institution during the Clinton administration, in particular USAalso managed to declassify other documents related to his relations with Moscow.
Eagleburger’s Ukraine in the first years after the fall of the USSR, despite his remark about USA his policy was clearly focused on Russia. During the Soviet period, he served in the US Embassy in Moscow. 20and the White House in the mid-00s National He was the director of the Security Council Thomas Graham (Thomas Graham) says so.
“It is long overdue to pay attention to Ukraine that is even close to the attention paid to Russia.” – he says.
In another document, written just three days after Clinton’s inauguration, Clinton and Yeltsin discuss the crisis in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq and Russia’s disengagement from the Soviet era in a phone conversation.
“We are determined to do everything we can to ensure the success of democratic reforms in Russia.” – Clinton says to Yeltsin.
Another document is Eagleburger’s memorandum to Christopher. Eagleburger’s brief tenure as Secretary of State made Bush’s longest-serving senior diplomat James Baker(James Baker) is not remembered as much because it is overshadowed.
Baker was one of the main figures in the negotiations not only with Yeltsin, but also with Gorbachev in the late 1980s, when the USSR began to fall apart. During the time when Germany was trying to reunify, he repeatedly both Gorbachev and Europe met with the leaders. During this period, the United States and NATO officials were considering whether or not to allow troops to be stationed in East Germany.
In this memorandum to Christopher, Eagleburger also discusses larger global issues such as environmental degradation and the spread of diseases such as AIDS. It also Japan, Europetalks about “creating new partnerships” with China, North Korea and Vietnam.
Eagleburger also touched on the potential problems of newly independent states in the territory of the former Soviet Union of Ukraine the economic problems he faced “easily Russia can increase the tension around security issues,” he writes.
He points to the disagreements that arose during the division of the Black Sea fleet of the USSR between Kiev and Moscow as one of the reasons for this tension.
The document also mentions the fate of Soviet nuclear weapons remaining on the territory of Ukraine. US officials were concerned that they could be lost, stolen, or even sold on the black market. There were similar concerns about Russia’s nuclear weapons.
“We can tame Ukraine now by treating it as an important player, not as an addition to the relationship with Russia, which we consider to be the main one. At the same time, if Ukrainians want to be taken seriously, they must understand that having nuclear weapons is not a privilege, but a responsibility.” – Eagleburger writes.
In 1994, Ukraine signed a historic document called the Budapest Memorandum. The document provided Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan with a number of security guarantees in exchange for sending their remaining nuclear stockpiles to Russia. In addition to these three countries, the United States, Russia and Britain signed.
Some Ukrainian officials and Western observers say in retrospect that Kiev gave away those weapons was a mistake. According to them, these weapons could deter Russia from attacking now.
“When the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States was worried about the possibility of conflict throughout the former USSR. The Bush administration feared a Yugoslavian scenario in the former Soviet Union. [Bu cür münaqişələrin] the most disastrous could be between Russia and Ukraine. We were monitoring the situation very closely. We didn’t say it would happen. It was necessary to think about it, but no one could foresee it.” – Graham says in an interview with RFE/RL.