Changes related to Russia’s oil tax do not seem decisive in solving the budget gap – #related #Russias #oil #tax #decisive #solving #budget #gap
MOSCOW, Feb 14 (Reuters) – Analysts said on Tuesday that Russia government’s oil producers based on Brent brand benchmark tax Although its implementation will not be significant in reducing the budget deficit, it will still provide significant revenues for oil producers.
As Western sanctions lower the price of the Urals benchmark, which is currently used, the government is debating how to calculate Russia’s taxed oil price.
Russia In Ukraine, “special military 1.76 trillion rubles in January (24 billion dollars) was forced to sell foreign exchange reserves to cover the deficit.
According to last week’s draft proposals, the discount of Russian Urals oil to Brent oil will be on April 34 dollars/barrel will be limited, 31 in May dollarswill drop to $28 in June and $25 in July.
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However tax In terms of growth, the measure may have a limited effect.
SberCIB Investment Research analysts said that “the discount of $34 per barrel is very generous and at the beginning of February Russia corresponds to the actual discount at which oil is sold”.
“Tax reducing the oil discount for the purposes of the medium-term perspective will not have a serious negative impact on the profitability of companies in the sector.
Urals crude spreads remained sharply below the single-digit discounts seen in early 2022.
Primary according to information, Russia’s oil and gas revenues january 426, which is 46.4% less compared to the same month last year billion ruble, which is the reduction of the prices of the Russian Urals mix of the Ministry of Finance, and of course gas due to the decrease in the volume of exports.
As a whole, during the month, budget revenues decreased by 35.1%, while expenditures decreased by 35.1% in 2023. january increased by 58.7% and amounted to 3.12 trillion rubles, which is more than the full annual expenditure plan 10made up more than %.
“The decision is positive in terms of increasing the stability of the federal budget, but its impact does not seem to be decisive until the end of this year,” Rosbank analysts said.
They added that according to their estimates, the Ministry of Finance’s revenue benefit is unlikely to exceed 0.5 trillion rubles, compared to a budget deficit of 1.8 trillion in January and a planned deficit of 2.9 trillion for the entire year.
A source in the Ministry of Finance said that the government law he probably took into account the increase in the price of oil while preparing his project.
“Our price forecasts for 2023 (Brent – on average 100 dollars/barrel, Ural – 75 dollars/barrel), then the amendments will not have any effect on the taxation of oil companies in general”, said the analysts of Sinara bank.
Reports by Vladimir Soldatkin, Darya Korsunskaya and Olesya Atsakhova; Edited by David Holmes
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
2023-02-14 18:08:19
Source – reuters
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