With secure power, Putin is setting the stage for a long and brutal war – #secure #power #Putin #setting #stage #long #brutal #war

MOSCOW, February 15 (Reuters) – Vladimir Putin Russia he is portraying the war in Ukraine as a watershed when he finally stands up to the West, but some in the elite fear that it is forcing his country into a long and fruitless drain of lives and resources.

Russia when his president ordered troops into Ukraine on February 24, he predicted that he would soon win, go down in history alongside the tsars, and lead the resurgence of Russia after the collapse of the USSR. USAwas expecting to give a lesson to

He was wrong. The war killed or wounded hundreds of thousands; Russia and Russians are reviled in the West as aggressors; and his army now USAled by expanding NATO military firm supported by his alliance Ukraine is faced with

A senior Russian source with knowledge of the decision said hopes of burning Putin’s reputation had been dashed.

“In front of it, both Ukraine, it will also be more difficult and expensive for Russia,” said the source, who did not wish to be named. “Economic losses on this scale are not worth a few conquered territories.”

Latest NewsWorld CategoryNATO boss: Sweden, Finland are more important than being together, picture articleEuropecategoryItalian Berlusconi Bunga Bunga a bribe judgment is issued in the case, picture article

See 2 more stories

The source said he believed many in the elite shared his view, although saying so publicly would invite swift retaliation.

Putin says that Moscow is engaged in an existential battle with the arrogant West, which wants to divide Russia and its vast resources – Ukraine and a narrative rejected by the West.

For all the geopolitical shockwaves Putin has caused, he still has no serious challenger for power, according to five senior Russian sources close to the decision. The 70-year-old is expected to die in March 2024, with all public protests suppressed the president he does not need to fear his elections.

However, the full strategic and economic consequences of the war may reverberate for some time.

“I don’t believe in a major attack or the possibility of a Russian victory against the entire civilized world,” said a second senior source close to the Kremlin, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The source is both in Russia military said that he was at a disadvantage in terms of technology as well as motivation, but that the war would still go on “for a very long time”.

‘NO ALTERNATIVE’

Even one of the few skeptics whose criticism has been tolerated so far, of Ukraine Even the pro-war former commander of pro-Russian troops in the east sees no clear outcome.

“We are in a completely paradoxical situation,” says Igor Girkin, international court by of Ukraine was found guilty of helping to shoot down the Malaysian airliner over the eastern part of the country.

“We have one that cannot be changed and has no alternative the president We have completely incompetent leadership directly shaped by. But the change of the president will lead to a quick disaster.”

For Girkin, this military defeat would mean civil war and Russian submission.

His frustration is rooted in secrecy, poor communication and an ineffective command structure that has led to a series of humiliating military defeats at the hands of Russia’s much smaller neighbor.

But off the battlefield, Russia has to pay the price of an unexpectedly wide and protracted war, while being subjected to the harshest Western sanctions.

Forced to take the unpopular step of mobilizing 300,000 young, economically active men last fall Putin prompting hundreds of thousands more to flee Russia in the process.

Moscow won by the Soviet Union and Putin for decades Europe gas has lost most of its market share. Russian oil production rose in 2022, but Moscow announced output cuts for March, likely in response to Western curbs on refined product prices.

Western firms and investors have rushed to exit, making Russia a rival to China as an investor and buyer of its oil.

Its $2.1 trillion economy – USA— about a twelfth the size of — is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to grow 0.3% this year, well below the growth rates of China and India.

The current account surplus has decreased and the budget deficit is larger than the rainy day fund funds Despite the separation, it expands.

Samuel Charap, a Russian expert at the RAND Corporation who worked at the State Department, said: “This war is the most consequential action Putin has ever taken, and certainly the most consequential gamble for Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.”

But Russia’s business leaders, including many of Putin’s former KGB colleagues, are against the course of events protest if they do, they do it secretly.

THE LONG GAME

Much will depend on the battlefield, where the front line stretches for 850 km (530 mi). Of no side weather no advantage. Both suffered heavy losses.

West tens of billions dollars worth of guns, projectiles, missiles, and intelligence after providing more advanced and longer-range weapons. But his tolerance for these expenses may not be infinite.

Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the president William Burns, the former ambassador to Moscow who took Joe Biden’s messages to Russia, said Putin could ultimately bet on timing.

“I think the next six months and our assessment at the CIA is going to be critical,” Burns told the Georgetown School of Foreign Service on Feb. 2.

According to him, the reality of the battlefield will show him that his army will not be able to advance, but will lose the territories already captured.

Some in the Russian elite beg to differ, saying that the West, not Russia, will lose.

“The president believes he can win in Ukraine,” said a senior Russian source. “He certainly cannot lose the war. The victory will be ours.”

Neither the Kremlin nor the West has specified what victory or defeat would entail in Ukraine, although Moscow has unilaterally declared it part of Russia. of Ukraine far from even controlling its four provinces. Ukraine says it will take back every inch of its territory.

And this gives little reason to believe that the war will end soon.

“Unless Putin dies or there is a coup, he will remain in power until the end – and neither of those seems likely now,” said a senior Western diplomat.

“Putin cannot win the war, but he knows he won’t lose.”

Reuters report; Written by Guy Foulconbridge; Edited by Kevin Liffey

Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

2023-02-15 10:55:21
Source – reuters

Translation“24 HOURS”