The worst-case scenario for the West is as real as ever: China does not even hide its goals

It is reported that China more than 7 percent. increases the defense budget, and also seeks to reduce dependence on foreign grain imports. Read more about it here.

What is the giant preparing for? Is a foray into Taiwan likely in the near future? Vida Macikėnaitė, a lecturer at the International University of Japan and China expert, spoke about this in the “Actualusis interview” program of “Žinių radio” on Friday.

According to her, hearing such statements by Xi Jinping may give the impression that Beijing is really determined to attack Taiwan.

“But I would like to point out that this (such rhetoric – op. p.) is not something very new. This is indeed a very threatening, clear statement, but we have seen that trend for a long time,” reminded V. Macikėnaitė.

She pointed out that China has been increasing its defense spending every year for decades.

“Probably since 1992-1993, when it became financially possible to do it. The need to keep Taiwan as part of China has also been talked about for a long time, and when Xi Jinping came to power in 2012-2013, there was already that stricter, clearer rhetoric towards Taiwan.” – said a lecturer at the International University of Japan.

Therefore, according to her, the preparations for war mentioned by Beijing should be evaluated in a longer perspective.

“He also stated in 2015 that the Chinese army should be a world-class army, especially the navy, which has also been being prepared for about three decades in order to be able to fight so-called local wars, which is what it is about Taiwan,” stated V. Macikėnaitė .

Also, as the expert explained, Beijing has been talking about the desire to reduce dependence on trade with the West for a long time.

“This has been talked about for at least three years – since the first year of the pandemic,” the interviewer reminded.

According to her, such Chinese rhetoric is based on the fact that the country feels increasingly insecure.

“If since the economic reform in 1978, all attention has been focused on economic development, then under Xi Jinping, especially in the last two years, China is most focused on security, because, according to their understanding, the US and Western countries are now posing an increasing threat and will try to a challenge to China in the region.

It’s a work in progress, but this particular grain statement is again one of many steps China is taking to maintain its independence from other nations. Just to be invulnerable – perhaps that’s the way to name the goal”, explained V. Macikėnaitė.

As a result, according to her, China is looking for alternative markets – Russia is a good source of energy, and China buys food products from Latin American countries.

“China is looking not to be dependent on Western countries. It finds some ways,” said the expert.

V. Macikėnaitė spoke similarly when commenting on China’s relations with Moscow – the intensification of bilateral cooperation, according to the participant of the show, could be seen for several decades.

“About 15 years ago, there were obvious signs that China and Russia have a common goal – to challenge the dominance of the United States. Since then, there has been purposeful work. Relations there are improving, but they are improving because the current situation is very convenient for China, because Russia is isolated and there is only one way for it.

China makes good use of this both economically and in challenging the dominance of the West,” said the political scientist.

As the interviewer pointed out, there is a lot of speculation in the West about Beijing’s determination to invade Taiwan by military means, but no one knows whether this will actually happen. However, V. Macikėnaitė pointed out that Beijing is making a lot of efforts to achieve its goals in various fields.

“China usually tries to win the war without fighting, which is a traditional Chinese wisdom or strategy to avoid having to fight.” These are probably hybrid measures being prepared to take over Taiwan.

If it doesn’t work, China has been preparing for it legally for several decades,” commented V. Macikėnaitė.

This, according to her, can be seen by evaluating Xi Jinping’s bilateral meetings, established bilateral relations – the agreements everywhere include the fact that the other country recognizes that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.

“This provides a legal basis for China to say (or at least China wants to say so) that Taiwan is China’s internal territory. Then the question is how to treat it in international law – is it aggression against another country, or is it still a domestic issue.

We see that China is preparing both legal and military means, whether it will happen or not is a very big question, it is impossible to say. But it is really true that China is more and more ready for this,” said the lecturer at the International University of Japan.

According to her, two fronts – in Ukraine and Taiwan – would be extremely bad for the West.

“That’s probably the worst case scenario. Of course, it could always be worse, but then it would be a very difficult situation, because the USA has declared more than once that it would try to help Taiwan (it is difficult to say how much that help would be), but it would be very bad news for Ukraine and Europe, because this would mean that the attention of the USA is turning to the most important task for the future – to the Asian region”, said V. Macikėnaitė.

Speaking about the economic relations between Europe and China, the expert noticed that they are still very strong, so the sanctions on Beijing, if they were introduced, would affect them very clearly.

“Unambiguous results would be very significant. (…) Lithuania was the first, now the whole of Europe is reviewing how to deal with China and is trying to talk about safe economic dependence – how not to fall into a trap,” the interviewer added.

Watch the entire “Knowledge Radio” program here: