The UK’s lagging economy is showing some signs of recovery – #UKs #lagging #economy #showing #signs #recovery
LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – A recession that looks certain to enter early 2023 Britain economy has shown some unexpected signs of recovery, raising questions about whether the Bank of England is really about to stop raising interest rates. .
Jumps in measures of business activity and consumer confidence and tax The rise in earnings has prompted some analysts to raise their forecasts for the economy this year, although any growth will be weak.
JP Morgan last week raised its forecast for gross domestic product growth in 2023 to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.1%. This compares with a 0.5% contraction forecast by the Bank of England (BoE) in early February.
England, coronavirus it is the only Group of Seven (G7) economy smaller than before the pandemic. January In 2008, the International Monetary Fund announced that it will be the only G7 country to decrease in terms of gross domestic product this year.
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Below is a summary of recent economic performance and how investors are increasing their bets on future BoE rate hikes.
BUSINESS INQUIRY REBOUNDS
A preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index beat all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, crossing the 50 mark for growth for the first time since July, rising from 48.5 in January to 53.0 in February.
JP Morgan economist Allan Monks, “Report “It poses a clear challenge to the BoE’s central view that a long-term recession and rising unemployment will keep inflation low enough,” he said.
Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics TRUST IN INDEPENDENCE
Britons have become more optimistic about their personal finances and the outlook for the economy this month, according to a consumer confidence measure by market research firm GfK. In February, it became the most expensive in almost two years.
Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics TAX SHOWS POWER TO MOVE REVENUES
Government finance data last week showed a larger surplus than a deficit, the strongest on record going back to 1999, as most economists polled by Reuters had expected. january income tax revenues and strong corporation tax revenues also helped.
Britain in 2023 january bear tax inputs 20It’s the highest for any January since 2000. BANK OF ENGLAND RATES DILEMMA
On February 2 Britain central bank inflation has said it is close to slowing or halting interest rate hikes after easing some of its pressure measures and the economy heading into recession.
However, since then, the improvement in economic data has investors looking at yields that are currently at 4.0%, rising to 4.25% next month and 4.5% in May. Bank He made his rater increase his bets and hit one out of three chances. 5% in August.
Reuters GraphicsUK AS G7 LAGGARD
Despite signs of improvement, Britain lags behind its peers in terms of recovery from the pandemic. Data to the end of 2022 shows that Britain is the only G7 economy that has not yet recovered to its level at the end of 2019. Economists point out that this reflects the huge impact of the pandemic on the country and the problems related to Brexit.
Reuters Graphics Writing by William Schomberg Editing by Mark Potter Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Vincent Flasseur
Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
2023-02-27 19:21:12
Source – reuters
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