Can the Iranian regime fall? 70 percent of the population… |
To all the pressures of the government in Iran, the killing of hundreds of demonstrators, thousands of people imprisonment Despite this, protests against the regime have been going on for months. These are the longest protests in the history of the Islamic Republic.
Although the number of protests has dwindled in recent weeks, analysts say the anger fueled by decades of state repression will not go away easily. As they deepened the gap between the clerical authorities and Iran’s young population protest they say that the movement will continue.
of the American University in Beirut Iran expert on Ali Fethullah-Nejad says that Iran 2017-2018started the “revolutionary process” with the protests that started in At that time, protests caused by economic grievances soon followed political had passed.
“In any such process, there are both calm and tense phases. … The current revolutionary episode shows that an irreconcilable gap has emerged between the state and society.” – says Fethullah-Nejad.
Alim is also the Brookings Institute’s Doha Center (Brookings Doha Center) in 2017 –2018is the author of a research article written about the protests that took place in
During the current protests, Iranians have demanded an end to the Islamic republic and have turned the most visible symbols of the clerical regime into targets of anger. Especially for women mandatory head covering and Ali religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is at the center of a wave of anger.
Government officials are using more and more force to suppress the protests, killing more and more citizens. But Iranians express their protest at small street meetings and at funerals for victims of government attacks. Who wrote slogans on the streets with spray paint and protest there are those who hang signs, and those who shout anti-government slogans from the roofs and windows of their houses.
According to human rights organizations, Iran security forces protest has killed at least 476 protesters, including more than 60 children, since the wave began. More than 15 thousand people were detained. Two young men were publicly executed for participating in the protests.
“Nothing will be the same, we have found our voice. Even if the revolution does not achieve its goal in the near future, we are no longer afraid, we are able to fight and resist.” – A female protester in Tehran, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told RFE/RL.
A journalist in the Iranian capital says that the protests pose a serious threat to the authorities. However, he believes that there is no danger of the regime falling in the near future. Judge There were no visible cracks between the elite and the armed forces. The protests did not bring the economy to a complete standstill.
“They will do everything they can to stay in power. Therefore, for now, especially the Internet and [milli valyuta] I expect an increase in tension and dissatisfaction with – increasing censorship and rial related to the internet USA the journalist said, implying a loss of value against the dollar.
A researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington Karim Sadjadpouraccording to the history shows that “People’s uprisings must be able to attract a critical mass to be sustainable. In order to attract a critical mass, the protests must be perceived as permanent.”
“It is clear that many Iranians … believe that this popular uprising can lead to the downfall of the Islamic Republic. [Ancaq] It is important that the officials of the Islamic Republic also start thinking that they are on the losing side. For now, we have not reached this point… – he says.
A well-known sociologist living in Tehran Hamid Reza Jalaipur says that the gap between the government and the population is “serious”. However, he believes that most Iranians still do not want to participate in protests to overthrow the regime.
“Currently, 15 percent of the society are supporters of the government, and 15 percent are serious protesters. 70 percent of the population is calm.” – Jalaipour said in an article published in Iranian media in October.
He linked the current wave of protests with the authorities not listening to the demands of the people for years.
“Power [keçmiş etirazlardan] He didn’t learn his lesson.” – he emphasized.