Munich – two years later – #Munich #years

Azerbaijan the president Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after two years, they again participated in discussions within the framework of the Munich Security Conference. This time, the agenda of the panel discussion is 15 February 2020“Innovation related to Nagorno-Karabakh” topic substitute “Overcoming mountains? “Building security in the South Caucasus”.

But in these two years, not only the name of the panels, but more than 30 years Armenia-Azerbaijan the entire architecture of the conflict has changed. Both participants of the discussions changed their roles – now Aliyev is occupied Azerbaijan territories free acts as a doer, Pashinyan and the part of Karabakh inhabited by Armenians Azerbaijan sees it in saving the full restoration of its jurisdiction over its historical and internationally recognized territories.

Unlike last year’s discussions, the parties did not go too deep into the history of the region, and although they were satisfied with the facts of the Soviet and post-Soviet era, they maintained their positions and approaches in the negotiations on the issue of conflict settlement. Azerbaijan, as before, in the phased solution of the issue, Armenia and insists on a package solution. But the content of the two approaches has changed considerably. 2020until the war of Azerbaijan phased approach to the occupied territories of Armenia free and then discussing the status of the Armenian-inhabited part of Karabakh with the possibility of granting autonomy. Armenia side areas To Azerbaijan return at the same time as determination of the status, that is, through a referendum, albeit formal, of Baku Karabakh was associated with the recognition of the independence of Armenians.

Azerbaijan 2020occupied territories in the fall of free made Armenia’s “land in exchange for status” condition on the agenda. History is great Karabakh within the area inhabited by Armenians To Azerbaijan returned. And establishing the de jure formed status quo in today’s daily routine, that is Azerbaijan and Armenia signing of the peace treaty between and in the context of this document Karabakh solution of the issue of Armenians is envisaged.

Today, Azerbaijan’s phased position is based on the mutual confirmation of the territorial integrity declared by the parties during the cancellation of the treaty on the creation of the USSR, and later Baku and the beginning of a dialogue between Karabakh Armenians about their full existence within Azerbaijan. Yerevan’s package approach includes a simultaneous settlement of the status of the Armenian-inhabited part of Karabakh, where a status agreement that excludes Baku’s jurisdiction over the territory comes to the fore.

Due to the existence of these two mutually exclusive approaches, the Munich panel discussion “Overcoming the mountains? It did not take place from the point of view of compliance with the “establishment of security in the South Caucasus” agenda. The moderator, like two years ago, was not able to bring such parties to the level of constructive discussion, not only regarding the settlement of Karabakh, but also regarding the security agenda of the South Caucasus as a whole. The participation of the Prime Minister of Georgia, Irakli Garibashvili, who is not coincidentally at the center of the gathered Caucasian trio, did not help this either. Perhaps, if Garibashvili acted as a moderator not only on the stage of the Munich conference, but also in the South Caucasus, where he demonstrated his peacemaking abilities, the impact of the meeting could have been different. Prime Minister of Georgia Baku and Yerevan, which was marked by a number of decisions, including Azerbaijan’s release of a group of Armenian prisoners and Armenia’s presentation of maps of Azerbaijani mined areas.

Aliyev and Pashinyan which the discussions could not shed light on Armenia-Azerbaijan the most important harbinger of the optimistic scenario of future development in its conflict USA was the statement of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. he Baku and noted that there is “considerable progress” on the way to a peace agreement between Yerevan and Yerevan. “Armenia-Azerbaijan It is good to hear that the peace process is going according to plan and the negotiations between the two sides are continuing,” he said Blinken He wrote on Twitter after his meeting with Aliyev and Pashinyan.

Thus, Blinken He said that there is a plan for the peace process, that great progress has been made on this plan and that it is being developed. Aliyev’s statement after the tripartite meeting with Blinken’s participation confirms this fact to some extent. “Three days ago, we received a response to our proposals on the peace agreement from the Armenian side, and now they are being studied. At first glance, there is progress in Armenia’s position, but it is not enough.”

of Armenia Turkey Blinken’s thesis is also confirmed by the positive steps he took in this direction. Yerevan extended a helping hand to Ankara to overcome the consequences of the terrible earthquake that occurred in the south of Turkey. Turkey-Relating the regulation of Armenian relations directly to the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations the president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan administration’s extended helping hand indicates that a serious positive tectonic progress has taken place in the Baku-Ankara-Yerevan negotiation process.

44 day war on the geopolitical front today, unlike the status quo on the eve political-diplomatic and military it is much more difficult for Pashinyan, who is targeted by the opponents of peace with Azerbaijan, to compromise in the Armenian society, where the emotional background is strained by failures. Apparently, that’s why President of France Emmanuel Macron was forced to emphasize once again on the Munich platform that Paris supports the actions of Pashinyan’s team and supporters. “My friend, we will support this in the future and continue cooperation Prime Minister I’m saying next to Nikol Pashinyan.”